Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Prediction 4/4/25 MLB Picks

Dean Kremer will take the mound for the Orioles on Friday. The 29-year-old righty had an 8-10 record last season in 24 starts with a 4.10 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 129.2 innings. This season, Kremer is 1-0 with an 8.44 ERA in 5.1  innings.

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals (2-4, 1-2 Home) lost the opening two series of the season to the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers. The Royals managed to win a game in each of the series, but it seems they should have a better record after losing two of those four games in extra innings. In the most recent 3-2 loss to the Brewers, Cole Ragans was solid through 5.0 innings as he allowed one run on five hits with ten strikeouts and two walks in a no-decision.

This season, the Royals average 3.83 runs per game (17th in the MLB) on a .213/.287/.338 slash line. Regarding pitching, the Royals’ staff has a 3.42 ERA (11th) and 1.31 WHIP (19th). Maikel Garcia leads the Royals with a .353 batting average, two home runs, and three RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Royals is Seth Lugo, who had a 16-9 record in 33 starts last season with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 206.2 innings of work. Lugo is 0-0 this season with a 5.40 ERA in 5.0 innings.

Why the Orioles will beat the Royals

• The Orioles have won each of their last five games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Royals have lost four of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine home games following a loss.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs against AL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Royals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Royals have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as favorites against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Royals' last eight games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Orioles' last six night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 11 of the Royals' last 12 games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in four of the Orioles' last five games at Kauffman Stadium.

Orioles vs Royals Prediction

The Orioles won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, but the Royals were better in three of the last five. Although I appreciate Lugo a bit more than Kremer, I am giving a slight advantage to the Orioles, who hit .286 BA against right-handers, as opposed to the Royals' .218 BA. Also, Lugo posted a 6.75 ERA in 5.1 innings against Baltimore last year, while Kremer registered a 4.91 ERA in 11.0 innings against Kansas City. It's going to be a close one, and it could go either way, but I am going with the Orioles in Game 1.