New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction 3/28/25 MLB Picks

Houston Astros (1-0) vs New York Mets (0-1)

Game Info: Friday, March 28, 2025 at 8:10 pm (Daikin Park)

Tylor Megill (R) vs Hunter Brown (R)

Betting Odds: Houston Astros -135 / New York Mets +114 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: Apple TV+

In this article, we will formulate a New York Mets vs Houston Astros prediction for this MLB game on Friday, March 28th, at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets ended the last year with an 89-73 record and made it to the Wild Card, where they defeated the Milwaukee Brewers and then beat the divisional rivals Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS before losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-2 in the NLCS. It was a rather successful season for the Mets, who want to make a step forward and reach the World Series this time around. On the opening day, they lost 3-1 to the Astros. Francisco Lindor scored the lone RBI, while Clay Holmes took the loss after allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits over 4.2 innings.

Last year, the Mets averaged 4.74 runs per game (7th in the MLB) on a .246/.319/.415 slash line. The Mets' pitching staff had a 4.30 ERA (15th) and 1.26 WHIP (19th). Francisco Lindor was the best offensive player for the Mets, with a .273 batting average, 33 home runs, and 91 RBI last season.

Tylor Megill will take the mound for the Mets on Friday. The 29-year-old right-hander had a 4-5 record in 2024 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 78.0 innings.

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros had a strong regular season in 2024 and finished it with an 88-73 record, winning the AL West ahead of the Seattle Mariners. However, the Detroit Tigers shocked them in the Wild Card with a pair of victories in Houston, unexpectedly ending the Astros' promising campaign. They beat the Mets 3-1 on the opening day of a new season after scoring all three runs in the opening three innings. Framber Valdez displayed a commanding performance during 7.0 innings, allowing no runs on four hits, with four strikeouts and two walks.

Last season, the Astros averaged 4.60 runs per game (10th in the MLB) on a .262/.322/.418 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, Houston’s staff had a 4.03 ERA (7th) and 1.24 WHIP (14th). Yordan Alvarez led the Astros with a .308 batting average, 35 home runs, and 86 RBI last season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Astros is Hunter Brown, who went 11-9 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 170.0 innings pitched in 2024.

Why the Astros will beat the Mets

  • The Mets have lost each of their last nine night games against American League opponents following a road loss.
  • The Astros have won each of their last eight games against the Mets at Daikin Park following a win.
  • The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last eight games against the Mets at Daikin Park following a win.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games at Daikin Park following a road loss.
  • The Astros have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Astros have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Friday games.

Total Runs Facts

  • Nine of the Mets' last 10 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Astros' last four games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last nine games as home favorites against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last four night games at Daikin Park.

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction 

The Astros won eight of the previous ten H2H encounters, including five of the last six. Megill played one game against the Astros last year and recorded a 6.75 ERA in 5.1 innings, and I expect the hosts to trouble him again on Friday. I surely believe we will see more runs than in the opening game of the series, but I will keep away from backing the total. In this pitching duel, I like Brown better, and I am backing him to go deep into the game. It's going to be another Astros win.

Oliver’s Pick Astros ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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