Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction MLB Picks 10/14/24

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees defeated the Kansas City Royals in four games in the ALDS to start their postseason. New York won game one by a score of 6-5, but they did drop game two, before winning games three and four in Kansas City by scores of 3-2 and 3-1. The Yankees only scored eight runs in the final three games of that series, so their offense needs to wake up in this series. Prior to the postseason, the Yankees lost two out of three against the Pirates, lost two out of three against the Orioles, and swept the Athletics. 

The New York pitching staff had a 3.74 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average in the regular season. The Yankees offense scored 815 runs with a .248 batting average and a .333 on base percentage this year. Aaron Judge hit .322 with 58 home runs and 144 RBI’s for the Yankees this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Alex Cobb, who allowed two earned runs and three hits over 3.0 innings in game three against Detroit. Cobb has only pitched in four games so far this season, which is definitely a concern for me. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Carlos Rodon, who allowed four earned runs and seven hits over 4.2 innings against the Royals in game two. Rodon had allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of the previous four outings, but he was not sharp against Kansas City. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Guardians

• The Guardians have lost each of their last eight night games against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium following a win.
• The Yankees have won seven of their last eight night playoff games against the Guardians.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against the Yankees following a win.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against the Guardians.

Why the Guardians will beat the Yankees

• The Yankees have lost each of their last three games as home favorites following a road win.
• The Guardians have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a win.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games at Yankee Stadium following a win.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last five games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Guardians' last five games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Yankees' last six games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Yankees' last four night games at Yankee Stadium.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Guardians' last four games as underdogs.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Anthony Volpe has recorded a Double in each of the Yankees' last four games as favorites against the Guardians.
• Aaron Judge has hit at least one home run in each of his last four appearances against the Guardians at Yankee Stadium.
• Aaron Judge has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Yankees' last four games as favorites against the Guardians.
• Juan Soto has scored at least one run in each of his last six home appearances against the Guardians.
• DJ LeMahieu has recorded at least one Single in 11 of his last 12 appearances against the Guardians at Yankee Stadium.
• Anthony Rizzo has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances against the Guardians after not playing the previous day.
• DJ LeMahieu has recorded a hit in each of his last nine appearances in night playoff games.
• Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.701) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in three of the Guardians' last four night games.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Guardians' last five night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Ramirez has scored at least one run in six of the Guardians' last seven night games.
• Andres Gimenez has recorded at least one total base in each of his last six appearances with the Guardians as road underdogs.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Guardians' last 10 playoff games.
• Will Brennan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians' last eight night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Ramirez ranks 5th in the league in Steals (41) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Yankees rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (815).
• The New York Yankees rank 3rd in the league for RBI's this season (782).
• The Cleveland Guardians rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.230).
• The Cleveland Guardians rank 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (621).

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction 

Cleveland comes into this series after a dramatic ALDS, where they put up five runs on one of the best pitchers in the MLB in game five to advance. The Guardians were not great on the road this season and I don’t love Cobb being the starting pitcher. New York had a hard time scoring runs against Kansas City, but their pitching staff was great in the last two games. The Yankees are going with Rodon on the mound, who struggled last time out, but was pretty solid in the outings prior to that. I don’t like either starting pitcher in this matchup, so give me the over here.