Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Prediction MLB Picks 8/20/24

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 65-60 this season and they have won three of their last four games. New York won game one in this series by a score of 4-3. Prior to this series, the Mets won two out of three against the Marlins, lost two out of three against the Athletics, and lost all three against the Mariners. New York is 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.12 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 597 runs with a .250 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .244 with 27 home runs and 69 RBI’s for the Mets this season.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Dean Kremer, who is 5-9 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 90.1 innings pitched this season. Kremer has allowed at least four earned runs in two of his last three starts. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Jose Quintana, who is 6-8 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 129.0 innings pitched this year. Quintana has allowed 12 earned runs in his last three starts (14.2 IP). 

Why the Orioles will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost five of their last seven games as favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Orioles have won five of their last six Tuesday games as underdogs against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last six road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Orioles' last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Mets' last 10 games as favorites against the Orioles have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last three games against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Double in three of the Mets' last four games against AL East opponents at Citi Field.
• Jose Quintana has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Tyrone Taylor has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against the Orioles.
• Pete Alonso has scored at least one run in each of the Mets' last four games against AL East opponents.
• Jose Quintana has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his five previous appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets' last seven Tuesday games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against the Orioles.
• J.D. Martinez has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances against the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Ramon Urias has scored at least one run in four of the Orioles' last five road games.
• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine Tuesday night appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Ramon Urias has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Tuesday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Ryan O'Hearn has recorded an RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Mets.
• Gunnar Henderson has hit a home run in four of the Orioles' last six games.
• Jordan Westburg has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Prediction 

New York was able to pick up a massive win in game one of this series with a walk-off homer on Monday night, but they will be locked in another battle here. The Mets are 34-32 at home this year, while the Orioles are 36-25 on the road. Baltimore is under .500 in their last 11 games and they are trailing the Yankees by a small margin in the East. I don’t love either starting pitcher in this matchup, but I do think Kremer has the slight advantage. We are getting very solid odds with one of the best teams in baseball against a very average pitcher, so my Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets prediction is for the Orioles to win.