Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction MLB Picks 8/13/24

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 69-49 this season and they have split their last six games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series loss against Arizona, where they lost three out of four games. Prior to that series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Dodgers, lost two out of three against the Mariners, and lost all three against the Yankees. Philadelphia is 4-10 in their last 14 games and they are first in the NL East. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 572 runs with a .255 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .279 with 26 home runs and 72 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Valente Bellozo, who is 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 20.2 innings pitched this year. Bellozo has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his four starts this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Taijuan Walker, who is 3-3 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 53.0 innings pitched this season. Walker has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts, but he has been out with an injury since June 21st. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Phillies

• The Phillies have lost each of their last four home games.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four home games.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in four of their last five games against the Phillies.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins' last four road games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last three games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last seven Tuesday games against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Trea Turner has hit a home run in each of the Phillies' last two home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last 13 games.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Nick Castellanos has scored at least one run in seven of the Phillies' last eight games against NL opponents.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one total base in each of the Phillies' last 13 games.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies' last four games against NL opponents at Citizens Bank Park.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jake Burger has hit a home run in five of the Marlins' last six games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins' last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one Single in six of the Marlins' last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has scored a run in six of the Marlins' last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one total base in each of the Marlins' last 12 night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins' last seven games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 

The Phillies come into this series currently in first place in the NL East, but they have played pretty poorly over the last month. Philadelphia is 38-21 at home, which is one of the better home records in the MLB, while Miami is just 20-36 on the road. The Marlins have been a little better offensively in recent games and they should have some chances against Walker, who is coming off of the IL. Miami is starting Bellozo, who has only made four starts, but he has been very serviceable. The Phillies are the way better team in this matchup, but their current form is troubling and I think Miami could take this one. My Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction is for the Marlins to win.