Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction MLB Picks 8/12/24

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 66-53 this season and they have won seven of their last eight games. San Diego is coming off of a series win against Miami, where they won two out of three games. Prior to this series, the Padres swept the Pirates, won two out of three against the Rockies, and won both games against the Dodgers. San Diego is 16-3 in their last 19 games and they are tied for second in the NL West. 

The San Diego pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Padres offense has scored 569 runs with a .266 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Manny Machado is batting .269 with 18 home runs and 68 RBI’s for the Padres this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Marco Gonzales, who is 1-1 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP over 33.2 innings pitched this year. Gonzales has allowed nine earned runs and 15 hits over his last two starts (7.0 IP). The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Joe Musgrove, who is 3-4 with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 49.1 innings pitched this season. Musgrove has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts, but has not pitched since late May due to injury. 

Why the Padres will beat the Pirates

• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have won 13 of their last 14 night games after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have covered the run line in four of their last five night games following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four night games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Padres' last nine games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates' last five games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last five games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last four games at Petco Park.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jurickson Profar has recorded at least one RBI in eight of the Padres' last 10 games at Petco Park against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Joe Musgrove has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances at Petco Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jackson Merrill has scored at least one run in each of the Padres' last seven games against NL opponents.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances against the Pirates after playing the previous day.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one Double in each of the Padres' last five night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 appearances against the Pirates.
• Joe Musgrove has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Jake Cronenworth has hit a home run in three of the Padres' last five home games against NL Central opponents.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Marco Gonzales has recorded three or more strikeouts in four of his five previous appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Andrew McCutchen has hit at least one home run in each of his last two appearances against NL West opponents.
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous appearances against the Padres.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in each of his six previous Monday night appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Single in each of his last six appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Andrew McCutchen has scored at least one run in each of his last six Monday night appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one total base in each of his eight previous appearances against the Padres.
• Jared Triolo has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

• The San Diego Padres rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (797).
• The San Diego Padres rank T2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1069).
• The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 26th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.302).
• The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 26th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1086).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this series trying to snap their seven game losing streak and they have slipped all the way to the bottom of the NL Central standings. The Pirates are 29-30 on the road, while the Padres are 30-29 at home. San Diego has been one of the hottest teams in the MLB recently and they just swept Pittsburgh at PNC Park last week. The Padres are welcoming back Joe Musgrove from the IL, who hasn’t pitched since May. Pittsburgh is going with Marco Gonzales, who has some ugly numbers in limited action this year. I don’t know what to expect from Musgrove in this spot, but I am going to ride the hot team here. My Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres prediction is for the Padres to win.