Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction MLB Picks 8/10/24

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 61-53 this year and they have won three of their last five games. Boston dropped the first game in this series on Friday night and they allowed eight runs in the game. Prior to this series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Royals, won two out of three against the Rangers, and won two out of three against the Mariners. Boston is 6-4 in their last ten games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .246 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 567 runs with a .262 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. Rafael Devers is batting .301 with 25 home runs and 71 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Spencer Arrighetti, who is 4-10 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP over 98.0 innings pitched this year. Arrighetti has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Josh Winckowski, who is 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 49.2 innings pitched this season. Winckowski has allowed three earned runs in his last five outings (5.2 IP), which have all come in relief. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Astros

• The Red Sox have won each of their last five day games against AL West opponents following a loss.
• The Astros have lost each of their last four day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last four games against AL West opponents following a home loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against teams that held a winning record.

Why the Astros will beat the Red Sox

• The Astros have won each of their last six games at Fenway Park against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four home games against the Astros following a loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in 13 of the Astros' last 14 games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four home games against the Astros following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox's last seven games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Astros' last five games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last four day games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last 11 Saturday games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in four of the Red Sox's last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one Single in each of the Red Sox's last six home games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Red Sox's last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded two or more hits in each of the Red Sox's last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox's last four day games.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Red Sox's last six day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Masataka Yoshida has scored at least one run in seven of his eight previous appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against the Red Sox.
• Kyle Tucker has hit at least one home run in four of his last six appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Jon Singleton has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six road appearances against the Red Sox.
• Kyle Tucker has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances against the Red Sox.

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

Houston was able to get a huge win in game one of this series on Friday night, which helps them keep pace with the Mariners in the very tight AL West race. Houston is 28-29 on the road, while Boston is just 27-29 at home this year. The Red Sox continue to play in higher scoring games and their games have gone over 10.5 runs in eight of their last ten. It looks like Boston could be using a bullpen day, while Arrighetti has been extremely up and down this year, so my Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox prediction is for this game to go over the total.