Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction MLB Picks 7/27/24

Brewers Continue to Lead the NL Central 

The Milwaukee Brewers are 59-44 this year and they have won five of their last seven games. Milwaukee lost the first game in this series on Friday night and they allowed six runs in the game. Prior to this series, the Brewers won two out of three against the Cubs, won both games against the Twins, and lost two out of three against the Nationals. Milwaukee is 7-6 in their last 13 games and they are leading the NL Central over the Cardinals and Pirates. 

The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 489 runs with a .254 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .247 with 16 home runs and 68 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee has scored three runs or fewer in four straight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Max Meyer, who is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP over 17.0 innings pitched this season. Meyer has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts, but he has not pitched in the MLB since April. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Aaron Civale, who is 2-7 with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 102.2 innings pitched this season. Civale has allowed three earned runs or more in two of his three starts with Milwaukee. 

Why the Brewers will beat the Marlins

• The Marlins have lost each of their last eight road games following a win.
• The Brewers have won five of their last six games against the Marlins at American Family Field following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six road games against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in six of their last eight home games against National League opponents following a loss.

Why the Marlins will beat the Brewers

• The Brewers have lost each of their last five night games against NL East opponents.
• The road team has won five of the Brewers' last six games.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games against the Marlins at American Family Field following a home loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Marlins' last nine night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Brewers' last three night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last four games at American Family Field.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Sal Frelick has recorded a Double in three of the Brewers' last four games against NL East opponents at American Family Field.
• Christian Yelich has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 Saturday appearances against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Rhys Hoskins has hit a home run in five of his last 12 home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Jackson Chourio has recorded two hits in each of the Brewers' last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Sal Frelick has recorded at least one Single in six of his seven previous appearances against the Marlins after playing the previous day.
• Jackson Chourio has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Aaron Civale has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances in night games.
• Gary Sanchez has recorded two or more RBIs in each of his last three home appearances after playing the previous day.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Josh Bell has hit a home run in four of the Marlins' last five games.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against NL opponents.
• Josh Bell has recorded at least one Single in seven of the Marlins' last eight night games.
• Josh Bell has scored a run in each of the Marlins' last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Josh Bell has recorded an RBI in five of the Marlins' last six night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Josh Bell has recorded at least one total base in each of the Marlins' last eight night games.

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 

Milwaukee comes into this game leading the NL Central, but they have not been very good over the last two weeks. The Brewers are 29-18 at home, while the Marlins are just 16-32 on the road. Miami has had their fair share of issues this year, but they are playing better over the last week. The Marlins are going with Max Meyer, who was very dominant in his first few starts, but this is a tough spot for him. The Brewers are going with Civale, who has some uninspiring numbers on the year and has a 1.40 WHIP. I really don’t like Civale on the mound for the Brewers, but I also think Meyer could struggle in his return to the majors. My Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction is for this game to go over the total.