Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction MLB Picks 7/21/24

Twins are Looking to Regain Momentum 

The Minnesota Twins are 54-43 this year and they have lost three of their last four games. Minnesota dropped the first game in this series and they allowed eight runs in the loss. Prior to this series, the Twins lost two out of three against the Giants, won two out of three against the White Sox, and won two out of three against the Astros. Minnesota is 5-4 in their last nine games and they are second in the AL Central. 

The Minnesota pitching staff has a 4.12 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Twins offense has scored 470 runs with a .253 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Willi Castro is batting .264 with seven home runs and 30 RBI’s for the Twins this season. Minnesota has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last six games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Aaron Civale, who is 2-7 with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 98.1 innings pitched this season. Civale has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, but has only made two starts since being traded from Tampa Bay. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Joe Ryan, who is 6-6 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 114.2 innings pitched this year. Ryan has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last five starts. 

Why the Twins will beat the Brewers

• The Twins have won eight of their last nine day games after playing the previous day.
• The Brewers have lost each of their last five road games against the Twins following a road win.
• The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against AL Central opponents following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Brewers' last six road games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Twins' last eight home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last five day games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last four day games at Target Field.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Max Kepler has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances at Target Field against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Joe Ryan has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Twins as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Byron Buxton has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances after playing the previous day.
• Joe Ryan has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Manuel Margot has recorded a Double in three of the Twins' last four games against NL opponents at Target Field.
• Jose Miranda has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Miranda has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven home appearances.
• Jose Miranda has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against NL opponents.
• Jose Miranda has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Christian Yelich has hit a home run in each of the Brewers' last two day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• William Contreras has recorded a Double in each of the Brewers' last three day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Brewers' last four games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• William Contreras has recorded two or more total bases in 10 of his last 11 road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Christian Yelich has recorded a Single in 11 of his last 12 appearances against the Twins after playing the previous day.
• Willy Adames has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers' last nine road games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Gary Sanchez has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Christian Yelich ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.320) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Minnesota Twins rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts this season (882).
• The Minnesota Twins rank 4th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.426).
• The Milwaukee Brewers rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (365).
• The Milwaukee Brewers are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 

Minnesota comes into this matchup five games behind the Guardians in the AL Central, but they are just one game up on the Royals, so every game is very important for them right now. The Twins are 27-19 at home this season, while the Brewers are 27-25 on the road. Milwaukee has had a very good season so far, but they aren’t great away from home. Joe Ryan has put up some solid numbers this season and while I do think he gives up too many runs at times, I like him to out duel Civale here. My Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins prediction is for the Twins to win.