Boston Red Sox vs LA Dodgers Prediction MLB Picks 7/21/24

Dodgers Are Cruising in the West 

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 58-41 this year and they have won three of their last five games. Los Angeles has won the first two games in this series by scores of 4-1 and 7-6. Prior to this series, the Dodgers lost two out of three against the Tigers, lost all three against the Phillies, and won two out of three against the Brewers. Los Angeles is just 3-6 in their last nine games, but they have a seven game lead in the NL West. 

The Los Angeles pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .229 opponent batting average. The Dodgers offense has scored 490 runs with a .254 batting average and a .334 on base percentage. Shohei Ohtani is batting .315 with 29 home runs and 69 RBI’s for the Dodgers this season. Los Angeles has allowed at least four runs in seven of their last nine games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Kutter Crawford, who is 6-7 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 112.2 innings pitched this year. Crawford has allowed a total of one earned run in his last three starts (20.0 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Los Angeles is James Paxton, who is 7-2 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 84.1 innings pitched this season. Paxton has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts, but did allow nine earned runs and 12 hits three starts ago against the Giants. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Dodgers

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 11 Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Dodgers have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last 14 Sunday day road games.
• The Dodgers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Dodgers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Red Sox's last seven games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the last seven games between the Red Sox and Dodgers have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Dodgers' last seven games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last three road games.

Los Angeles Dodgers Player Prop Facts

• Shohei Ohtani has recorded a Double in each of his last three home appearances against AL East opponents.
• Teoscar Hernandez has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
• Shohei Ohtani has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against AL East opponents.
• Max Muncy has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• James Paxton has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against the Red Sox.
• Max Muncy has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight appearances with the Dodgers as favorites against AL East opponents.
• Mookie Betts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against AL East opponents.
• Mookie Betts has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances with the Dodgers as favorites against AL East opponents.
• Shohei Ohtani ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.632) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Tyler O'Neill has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances against the Dodgers after playing the previous day.
• Triston Casas has scored a run in each of his last eight Sunday day appearances.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Red Sox's last six day games.
• Tyler O'Neill has recorded two or more hits in each of the Red Sox's last five games against NL opponents.
• Dominic Smith has recorded at least one Single in four of the Red Sox's last five day games.
• Tyler O'Neill has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Red Sox's last five games against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Los Angeles Dodgers rank T2nd in the league for RBI's this season (474).
• The Los Angeles Dodgers rank 2nd in the league for slugging percentage this season (.435).
• The Boston Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (24).
• The Boston Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for slugging percentage this season (.426).

Boston Red Sox vs LA Dodgers Prediction 

Los Angeles has been able to get back on track in the first two games of this series, but it has not been easy, as they have had to rally late in both games. The Dodgers are 30-19 at home this season, while the Red Sox are 29-19 on the road. Boston has been one of the best road teams this year and they have played well in this series, but they have nothing to show for it. The Red Sox will turn to Kutter Crawford, who has been dominant in his last three outings. The Dodgers are going with Paxton, who has been known to have poor outings and has an elevated WHIP. It is never easy to go against the Dodgers, especially at home, but Crawford is red hot right now and I can’t back Paxton. My Boston Red Sox vs LA Dodgers prediction is for the Red Sox to win.