Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Prediction MLB Picks 7/21/24

Cubs Fall into Last Place 

The Chicago Cubs are 47-53 this season and they have lost four of their last five games. Chicago has lost the first two games in this series and they have scored a total of two runs in the two games. Prior to this series, the Cubs split four games with the Cardinals, swept the Orioles in three games, and won two out of three against the Angels. Chicago is 6-4 in their last ten games, but they are currently last in the NL Central. 

The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Cubs offense has scored 417 runs with a .234 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Seiya Suzuki is batting .265 with 13 home runs and 45 RBI’s for the Cubs this season. Chicago has scored three runs or fewer in three of their last five games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Brandon Pfaadt, who is 4-6 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 113.1 innings pitched this season. Pfaadt has allowed a total of two earned runs in his last three starts (16.1 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Shota Imanaga, who is 8-2 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 97.0 innings pitched this year. Imanaga has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last five starts, but he has gone two straight outings without an earned run. 

Why the Cubs will beat the Diamondbacks

• The Cubs have won each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost eight of their last nine Sunday day road games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 12 day games following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs' last five home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks' last four games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cubs' last nine games against NL West opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks' last five games against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Ian Happ has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Cubs' last four games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six home appearances.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs' last eight day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one total base in 14 of his last 15 appearances against NL opponents.
• Cody Bellinger has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances with the Cubs as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Patrick Wisdom has hit a home run in three of his last four home appearances against the Diamondbacks.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances against NL opponents at Wrigley Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Gabriel Moreno has recorded a Double in four of the Diamondbacks' last five games as road underdogs.
• Christian Walker has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Diamondbacks' last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Randal Grichuk has recorded two total bases in each of his last five appearances against the Cubs.
• Ketel Marte has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with the Diamondbacks as road underdogs against the Cubs.
• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded eight or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Diamondbacks as road underdogs.
• Joc Pederson has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances against NL Central opponents at Wrigley Field.
• Joc Pederson has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Cubs after playing the previous day.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Chicago Cubs rank 24th in the league for strikeouts against this season (885).
• The Chicago Cubs rank T8th in the league for triples this season (16).
• The Arizona Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for hits allowed this season (885).
• The Arizona Diamondbacks rank T3rd in the league for runs scored this season (490).

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 

Arizona has really elevated their playing level over the last few weeks and they are right back in the race for the NL West with the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks pitching staff is one of the worst in the MLB, but they are third in runs scored this season offensively. Arizona is 25-24 on the road, while the Cubs are 25-23 at home this year. Chicago is six games below .500 and their offense has been very inconsistent. The Cubs do have Imanaga on the mound in this game, and it looks like he is back to being dominant. Arizona is going with Pfaadt, who has been very good in his last three starts, but there is something about him that I don’t trust. I like how Imanaga has looked in his last two starts and my Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs prediction is for the Cubs to get the win.