Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction MLB Picks 7/20/24

Yankees are Locked in a Battle 

The New York Yankees are 59-40 this year and they have won three of their last four games. New York won the first game in this series by a score of 6-1 on Friday night. Prior to this series, the Yankees won two out of three against the Orioles, lost two out of three against the Rays, and lost two out of three against the Red Sox. New York is just 5-8 in their last 13 games and they are one game behind Baltimore in the AL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 3.51 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .225 opponent batting average. The Yankees offense has scored 494 runs with a .247 batting average and a .330 on base percentage. Juan Soto is batting .303 with 23 home runs and 66 RBI’s for the Yankees this season. New York has scored at least five runs in three straight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Taj Bradley, who is 4-4 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 68.1 innings pitched this year. Bradley has allowed one earned run or fewer in four straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Nestor Cortes, who is 4-8 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 115.1 innings pitched this season. Cortes has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Rays

• The Rays have lost each of their last eight Saturday day games.
• The Yankees have won five of their last six home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Rays' last four games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees' last five day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rays' last four games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last four games against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Yankees' last three games as favorites.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Alex Verdugo has recorded at least one Double in three of the Yankees' last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Nestor Cortes Jr. has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Yankees as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Aaron Judge has hit a home run in four of the Yankees' last five games at Yankee Stadium against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Nestor Cortes Jr. has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five home appearances against AL opponents.
• Aaron Judge has scored at least one run in 13 of his last 14 appearances against AL opponents at Yankee Stadium.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven home appearances against AL opponents.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 appearances with the Yankees as favorites against AL opponents.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Yankees as favorites against AL opponents.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances with the Yankees as favorites against AL opponents.
• Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.677) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Randy Arozarena has recorded a Double in five of the Rays' last six road games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of the Rays' last four road games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
• Amed Rosario has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight road appearances against the Yankees.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 18 appearances with the Rays as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 18 appearances with the Rays as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Josh Lowe has scored at least one run in four of his five previous road appearances against the Yankees after playing the previous day.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Yankees rank 1st in the league for walks this season (393).
• The New York Yankees rank 2nd in the league for home runs this season (140).
• The Tampa Bay Rays rank 28th in the league for RBI's this season (351).
• The Tampa Bay Rays rank 27th in the league for home runs this season (87).

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction 

New York was able to win the first game of this series on Friday night and it looks like they are pulling out of their struggles over the last few weeks. The Yankees are 26-19 at home this year, while the Rays are 21-22 on the road. Tampa Bay is hovering right around the .500 mark, but they need to find more consistent offense, as scoring two runs or fewer is obviously not going to cut it. The Rays will go with Taj Bradley, who has been very good in recent outings. The Yankees are going with Cortes, who has not been at his best. I really like how Bradley has pitched for Tampa Bay over the last few weeks, but I just can’t trust their offense. My Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees prediction is for the Yankees to win by at least two runs.