Home Run Derby Prediction MLB Picks 7/15/24

Alec Bohm, +1600 - Alec Bohm has the worst odds of any player in the field. Bohm has no derby experience and has hit only 11 homers this season. Bohm is more of a contact hitter and has hit 55 bombs in over 2,200 career plate appearances. Bohm is likely only here because he’s an all star already and was willing to fill up a spot because he didn’t have to travel to Arlington.

Adolis Garcia, +500 - Adolis Garcia participated in last year’s HR derby and hit 17 but was sent home in the first round by Randy Arozarena. Garcia has 17 homers on the year, which means he should reach at least 20 for the fourth straight year. Garcia will also be the crowd favorite considering he’s a Texas Ranger, and 67 of his 114 career bombs have come at Globe Life Field.

Gunnar Henderson, +430 - Gunnar Henderson has no derby experience, but he’s hit a combined 55 homers in his last 932 at bats. With 27 homers this year, Henderson should set a new career high and put himself in the conversation as one of the best power hitters at only 23 years old. Henderson also has 1 homer in just two career games at Globe Life Field.

Teoscar Hernandez, +1100 - It’s kind of surprising Teoscar Hernandez has never participated in the derby before. While not an overwhelming power hitter, Hernandez is one bomb away from hitting 20 or more for the sixth time in his last 7 seasons. Hernandez has pop, and it should be interesting to see him participate in this event.

Marcell Ozuna, +380 - Marcell Ozuna has 26 homers this season, which should lead to the third time in his career he’s reached the 30 mark. Ozuna hit 40 home runs last year and received some MVP votes. Ozuna is getting stronger as he approaches 34 years old and has the second-best odds to win the derby despite no previous experience.

Jose Ramirez, +1400 - Jose Ramirez participated in the 2022 derby and lost a close round to the eventual winner, Juan Soto, 17-18. Ramirez has hit 23 homers this year, which is the seventh time in his career he’s reached the 20 mark. Since 2017, Ramirez has hit 220 homers on a .280 batting average. Ramirez has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last decade.

Bobby Witt Jr., +470 - Bobby Witt Jr. has a little over 1,600 at bats for his career and has already hit 66 homers. Witt is averaging a home run every 24.4 at bats up to this point. Witt has no bombs in 9 career games at Globe Life Field, but there’s no doubt he’s one of the better power hitters in the game right now.

MLB Home Run Derby Prediction

Usually I’m a guy who looks at long shot odds in these events, as I like bang for my buck. I would give Teoscar Hernandez a look at +1100 if looking for a shot in the dark. He has legit power, and those odds are a bit disrespectful. The problem is, outside of Alonso, only Garcia and Ramirez have derby experience. You can’t make up for that. While hitting homers is one thing, there’s something about knowing how to pace yourself, when to call a timeout, know when you’re on a heater, etc., that determines who wins the derby. Alonso no longer needs the money the way he did in past years when he was making peanuts, but he still takes pride as being crowned the best power hitter in the game. He has the experience, with four previous appearances and two victories. I can’t go against that with a chance to make three times my money.

Alonso joins Ken Griffey Jr. as a three time derby winner.