Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction MLB Picks 7/11/24

Houston Astros (48-44) vs Miami Marlins (32-60)

Game Info: Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 8:10 pm (Minute Maid Park)

Jake Bloss (0-0) (4.91) vs Roddery Munoz (1-3) (5.48)

Betting Odds: Houston Astros -195 / Miami Marlins +165 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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In this article we will formulate a Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 11th at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. To formulate this prediction for game three in the series, we will examine:

  • The Marlins recent form and recent player performance 
  • The Astros recent form and recent play performance
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Miami
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Houston
  • Recent betting trends in games played between Miami and Houston 
  • A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Miami and Houston

Marlins Trying to Bounce Back 

The Miami Marlins are 32-60 this season and they have lost seven of their last nine games. Miami has dropped the first two games in this series and they have allowed 13 runs in the process. Prior to this series, the Marlins won two out of three against the White Sox, lost all three against the Red Sox, and split four games with the Phillies. Miami is 4-9 in their last 13 games and they are last in the NL East. 

The Miami pitching staff has a 4.54 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 320 runs with a .230 batting average and a .281 on base percentage. Jake Burger is batting .214 with nine home runs and 31 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. Miami has scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last eleven games. 

Astros Continue to Pressure Seattle 

The Houston Astros are 48-44 this year and they have won five of their last seven games. Houston has won the first two games in this series by scores of 4-3 and 9-1. Prior to this series, the Astros lost two out of three against the Twins, won three out of four against the Blue Jays, and won two out of three against the Mets. Houston is 15-4 in their last 19 games and they are just a couple of games behind Seattle in the AL West. 

The Houston pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 442 runs with a .264 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez is batting .297 with 19 home runs and 51 RBI’s for the Astros this season. Houston has scored at least five runs in five of their last eight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Roddery Munoz, who is 1-3 with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 44.1 innings pitched this year. Munoz has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five outings, but three of those five outings were 4.2 innings or fewer. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Jake Bloss, who is 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP over 3.2 innings pitched this season. Bloss allowed two earned runs and six hits over 3.2 innings against the Orioles in his first start. 

Why the Astros will beat the Marlins

  • The Astros have won each of their last eight home games.
  • The Marlins have lost each of their last six games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Astros have covered the run line in 16 of their last 17 games after playing the previous day.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games against AL West opponents following a loss.
  • The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight games at Minute Maid Park.

Why the Marlins will beat the Astros

  • The Astros have lost seven of their last eight Thursday games as home favorites against National League opponents.
  • The Marlins have won three of their last four games as road underdogs following a loss.
  • The road team has covered the run line in nine of the Astros' last 11 games.
  • The Astros have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five night games against NL East opponents following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

  • Four of the Astros' last five games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Three of the Marlins' last four games against AL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last six games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last four night games at Minute Maid Park.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Jose Altuve has recorded a Double in three of the Astros' last four games against the Marlins at Minute Maid Park.
  • Jeremy Pena has recorded a Single in each of his last seven home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in each of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Alex Bregman has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Astros' last four games as favorites against the Marlins.
  • Jose Altuve has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Marlins.
  • Jose Altuve has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances with the Astros as favorites.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded three or more total bases in each of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances with the Marlins as underdogs against AL West opponents.
  • Jesus Sanchez has scored a run in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction 

Houston is one of the hottest teams in the MLB right now and they are 26-19 at home this season. The Astros are closing in on the Mariners in the AL West and their offense has been red hot. Miami is just 14-29 on the road this season and they are starting Munoz, who I do not trust against this Houston lineup. For the Astros, they are going with Bloss, who is making his second start of the season after pitching decent in 3.2 innings against Baltimore. I don’t love the pitching matchup in this game and I think we could see plenty of runs here. My Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros prediction is for this game to go over the total. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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