Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction MLB Picks 7/10/24

Mets Looking to Gain Ground on Atlanta 

The New York Mets are 45-45 this season and they have won three of their last four games. New York won the first game in this series by a score of 7-5 on Tuesday night. Prior to that series, the Mets split four games with the Pirates, split four games with the Nationals, and lost two out of three against the Astros. New York is 5-6 in their last 11 games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.25 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 433 runs with a .248 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .237 with 18 home runs and 48 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has allowed at least five runs in three of their last five games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Patrick Corbin, who is 1-8 with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 100.0 innings pitched this year. Corbin has allowed three earned runs or more in three straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Luis Severino, who is 5-3 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 103.1 innings pitched this year. Severino has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four outings. 

Why the Mets will beat the Nationals

• The Nationals have lost seven of their last eight night games after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have won each of their last six night games following a home win.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as road underdogs.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last three home games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last four home games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Nationals' last nine night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets' last five home games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last 10 games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Nationals' last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in each of the Mets' last three games against the Nationals at Citi Field.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Mets' last six home games against NL opponents.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Tyrone Taylor has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances in night games.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite against the Nationals.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Keibert Ruiz has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Nationals against NL opponents.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded three or more total bases in each of his last three appearances.
• Jesse Winker has scored a run in four of the Nationals' last five games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight road appearances against the Mets.
• Patrick Corbin has recorded four or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances with the Nationals as road underdogs.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against the Mets.
• Joey Gallo has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Mets.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction 

New York was able to pick up the win in game one of this series on Tuesday, and they are back to .500 on the season. The Mets are 22-25 at home this year, while the Nationals are 22-26 on the road. Washington has really struggled with their pitching staff recently and they will have Patrick Corbin on the mound, who has a WHIP over 1.50 on the year. New York is going with Severino, who started the season very strong, but he has been roughed up in recent outings. I don’t love the pitching matchup for either side here, but I do think the Mets can take advantage of Corbin and the Nats bullpen. My Washington Nationals vs New York Mets prediction is for the Mets to win by at least two runs.