Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction MLB Picks 5/31/24

Chicago Cubs (28-29) vs Cincinnati Reds (24-32)

Game Info: Friday, May 31, 2024 at 2:20 pm (Wrigley Field)

Javier Assad (4-1) (2.17) vs Graham Ashcraft (4-3) (4.67)

Betting Odds: Chicago Cubs -154 / Cincinnati Reds +129 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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In this article we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 31st at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. To formulate this prediction for game one in the series, we will examine:

  • The Reds recent form and recent player performance 
  • The Cubs recent form and recent play performance
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Cincinnati
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Chicago
  • Recent betting trends in games played between Cincinnati and Chicago
  • A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Cincinnati and Chicago

Cincinnati Trying to Keep Momentum 

The Cincinnati Reds are 24-32 this season and they have won four of their last six games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss against St. Louis, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Cardinals swept the Dodgers in three games, lost two out of three against the Padres, and lost three out of four against the Dodgers. Cincinnati is just 5-7 in their last 12 games and they continue to be last in the NL Central. 

The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 227 runs with a .216 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .249 with nine home runs and 24 RBI’s for the Reds this season. Cincinnati has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five games. 

Chicago Looking to Get Back on Track 

The Chicago Cubs are 28-29 this year and they have lost seven of their last eight games. Chicago is coming off of a series loss against Milwaukee, where they lost three out of four games and were out scored 24-17 in three games. Prior to that series, the Cubs lost both games against the Cardinals, lost two out of three against the Braves, and lost three out of four against the Pirates. Chicago is just 4-12 in their last 16 games and they are third in the NL Central. 

The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.92 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Cubs offense has scored 244 runs with a .228 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. Michael Busch is batting .241 with eight home runs and 23 RBI’s for the Cubs this season. Chicago is 15th in team ERA this year and they have allowed at least five runs in five of their last eight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Graham Ashcraft, who is 4-3 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 54.0 innings pitched this year. Ashcraft has allowed 14 earned runs in his last four starts (19.1 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Javier Assad, who is 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 58.0 innings pitched this season. Assad has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but has gone fewer than 5.0 innings in two of those five outings. 

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

The Reds have lost each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a loss.The Cubs have won four of their last five home games against the Reds following a road loss.The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against NL Central opponents.The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Reds' last three games at Wrigley Field.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

The Cubs have lost each of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.The Reds have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 14 games as favorites against National League opponents.The Reds have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as underdogs against the Cubs following a home loss.The Reds have led after 5 innings in four of their last six games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Reds' last five day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.Each of the Cubs' last four day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cubs' last six games at Wrigley Field.The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last three games at Wrigley Field.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 

Cincinnati comes into this series in last place in the NL Central, but they have a bit of momentum right now and will look to keep it going here. Chicago has really struggled over the last few weeks, but they are 15-11 at home, and will have Javier Assad on the mound. Assad has been fantastic for the Cubs this season and has been a much better option than Ashcraft for the Reds. I think we are going to see a lower scoring game in this matchup, as four of Assad’s last five starts have gone under 8.5 runs. My Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs prediction is for this game to go under the total. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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