New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction MLB Picks 5/16/24

Philadelphia Phillies (31-13) vs New York Mets (19-23)

Game Info: Thursday, May 16, 2024 at 6:40 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

Taijuan Walker (3-0) (4.82) vs Jose Quintana (1-4) (5.44)

Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -150 / New York Mets +130 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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In this article we will formulate a New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, May 16th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. To formulate this prediction for game four in the series, we will examine:

  • The Mets recent form and recent player performance 
  • The Phillies recent form and recent play performance
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving New York
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Philadelphia 
  • Recent betting trends in games played between New York and Philadelphia 
  • A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between New York and Philadelphia

Mets Trying to Avoid a Four Game Sweep 

The New York Mets are 19-23 this season and they have lost five of their last six games. New York has lost the first three games in this series and they have been outscored by a total of 19-9. Prior to this series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Braves, won both games against the Cardinals, and were swept by the Rays. New York has only won one of their last seven series and they are currently fourth in the NL East behind the Phillies, Braves, and Nationals. 

The New York pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a .224 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 177 runs with a .233 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .225 with nine home runs and 22 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York is 19th in runs scored this year and they have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last six games. 

Phillies Continue to Control the NL East

The Philadelphia Phillies are 31-13 this season and they have won five of their last six games. Philadelphia has won the first three games in this series by scores of 5-4, 4-0, and 10-5. Prior to this series, the Phillies won two out of three against Miami, split a two game set with Toronto, and swept the Giants. Philadelphia has won 16 of their last 19 games and they have a three game lead in the NL East. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.19 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a .223 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 232 runs with a .260 batting average and a .338 on base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .271 with 10 home runs and 32 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia is second in the MLB in runs scored this season and they have scored at least four runs in 11 of their last 12 games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Jose Quintana, who is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over 41.1 innings pitched this season. Quintana has allowed 12 earned runs and 16 hits over his last two starts (7.2 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Taijuan Walker, who is 3-0 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 18.2 innings pitched this year. Walker struggled in his first two starts, but he allowed one earned run and eight hits over 6.0 innings against Miami in his last start. 

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

  • The Phillies have won 19 of their last 20 home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Mets have lost each of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL East opponents following a win.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Bryce Harper has hit a home run in four of the Phillies' last five home games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies' last four games as home favorites against the Mets.
  • Taijuan Walker has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances against NL East opponents.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of his last nine home appearances.
  • Taijuan Walker has recorded a win in six of his last seven home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 15 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Bryson Stott ranks T10th in the league in Steals (10) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • J.D. Martinez has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances against the Phillies.
  • Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last eight appearances against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Francisco Lindor has scored a run in each of the Mets' last five games as road underdogs.
  • Jose Quintana has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his five previous road appearances against the Phillies.
  • Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets' last eight road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets' last eight road games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Pete Alonso has recorded a Double in each of the Mets' last five night games.
  • Starling Marte has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six Thursday appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 2nd in the league for RBI's this season (212).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.337).
  • The New York Mets rank T29th in the league for triples this season (1).
  • The New York Mets rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (315).

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 

Philadelphia rolls into this game looking for the series sweep and another series win, while New York tries to find some momentum. The Mets are 9-9 on the road, but they have been dominated in this series. The Phillies are 16-7 at home this season and they will have Walker on the mound, who has been solid in his last two starts. Quintana has been roughed up in his last few starts for the Mets and this is not a lineup you want to face when struggling. My New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction is for the Phillies to win by two runs. 

David’s Pick Phillies -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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