San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction MLB Picks 5/5/24

Arizona Diamondbacks (14-19) vs San Diego Padres (17-18)

Game Info: Sunday, May 5, 2024 at 4:10 pm (Chase Field)

Ryne Nelson (1-2) (4.60) vs Matt Waldron (1-3) (4.35)

Betting Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks -111 / San Diego Padres -106 --- Over/Under: 10 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Sunday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will trot out Matt Waldron here and Waldron is 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 27 strikeouts this season. This will be Waldron’s second career start against the Diamondbacks. Ryne Nelson will get the start for the Diamondbacks in this one and is 1-2 with a 4.60 ERA and 13 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against San Diego, Nelson is 1-2 with a 6.04 ERA and 19 strikeouts against the Padres.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres will be pushing for the sweep after clinching a second straight series win thanks to a 13-1 win over the Diamondbacks on Saturday. That gives the Padres the series win to follow up their series win over the Reds to start the week.

Padres Offense Clicking

Jurickson Profar leads the Padres with 41 hits along with a .347 batting average and 9 doubles with 5 homers and 23 RBIs. Jake Cronenworth has a team-high 25 RBIs while Fernando Tatis Jr. has belted a team-high 7 home runs this season. Manny Machado has 5 home runs and 21 RBIs but also has a team-high 33 strikeouts while Ha-Seong Kim has 27 hits with 2 triples, 4 doubles, 21 RBIs and a team-high 7 stolen bases.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

  • Probable Starting Pitcher: Matt Waldron Record this season: 1-3 ERA: 4.35
  • The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
  • The Padres have won three of their last four games as road underdogs.
  • The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Padres have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
  • The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as favorites.
  • The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites.
  • The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks will try to salvage something from the series after their blowout loss to the Padres, making it yet another series loss for the Diamondbacks after losses to the Dodgers and Mariners over the last week.

Diamondbacks Offense Drying Up Like The Desert

Ketel Marte leads the Diamondbacks with 41 hits in addition to a .308 batting average and 12 doubles with 5 home runs and 15 RBIs while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. also has 5 home runs and a team-high 22 RBIs as well this season. Corbin Carroll has a team-high 8 stolen bases while Eugenio Suarez has a team-high 37 strikeouts this season. Christian Walker also has 7 home runs with 22 RBIs of his own this season.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

  • Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryne Nelson Record this season: 1-2 ERA: 4.60
  • The Diamondbacks have won nine of their last 10 day games against NL West opponents.
  • The Padres have lost four of their last five day games following a win.
  • The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last seven day games against NL West opponents following a loss.
  • The Padres have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games against NL West opponents following a road win.
  • The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games at Chase Field against NL West opponents.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on the over in this one. Nelson was brutal at home last year with an ERA over eight and a career home ERA just over seven and the Padres’ bats are hot right now and only get stronger with the addition of Luis Arraez. On the other side, even though he’s actually pitched better on the road, I still don’t trust Matt Waldron as far as I can throw him and I think that this is a great spot for the over to cash. Maybe not as one-sided as Saturday’s win, but I think runs are coming regardless. Give me the over here.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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