Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction MLB Picks 5/5/24

Cincinnati Reds (16-17) vs Baltimore Orioles (22-11)

Game Info: Sunday, May 5, 2024 at 4:10 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Nick Lodolo (3-0) (1.88) vs Dean Kremer (2-2) (4.19)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds -115 / Baltimore Orioles -105 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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In this article we will formulate a Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 5th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. To formulate this prediction for game three in this series, we will examine:

  • The Orioles recent form and recent player performance 
  • The Reds recent form and recent play performance
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Baltimore
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Cincinnati
  • Recent betting trends in games played between Baltimore and Cincinnati
  • A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Baltimore and Cincinnati

Orioles Leading the AL East 

The Baltimore Orioles are 22-11 this year and they have won five of their last six games. Baltimore has won the first two games in this series by scores of 3-0 and 2-1. Prior to this series, the Orioles won three out of four against the Yankees and lost two out of three against Oakland. Baltimore has allowed two runs or fewer in six straight games, and they are leading the Yankees by one game in the AL East. 

The Baltimore pitching staff has a 3.38 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a .223 opponent batting average. The Orioles offense has scored 169 runs with a .249 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. Gunnar Henderson is batting .280 with 10 home runs and 24 RBI’s for the Orioles this year. Baltimore has had outstanding pitching in recent games, but the offense hasn’t been great, scoring three runs or fewer in four of their last six. 

Reds are Looking for Offense

The Cincinnati Reds are 16-17 this season and they have lost four games in a row. Cincinnati has lost the first two games in this series and they have only scored one run in two games. Prior to this series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Padres and Rangers. Cincinnati has lost seven of their last nine games and they are third in the NL Central behind the Brewers and Cubs. 

The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .235 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 151 runs with a .213 batting average and a .292 on base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .278 with eight home runs and 19 RBI’s for the Reds this year. Cincinnati has scored two runs or fewer in three straight games and they have not won a series in their last four tries. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Dean Kremer, who is 2-2 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 34.1 innings pitched this year. Kremer has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but did allow six earned runs against Milwaukee on April 13th. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over 24.0 innings pitched this season. Lodolo has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. 

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

  • Jonathan India has scored a run in five of his last six appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
  • Nick Lodolo has recorded nine or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances in day games.
  • Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
  • TJ Friedl has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances with the Reds as home favorites.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one Single in each of his last four appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight appearances.
  • Jonathan India has recorded a Double in four of the Reds' last five home games against the Orioles.
  • Elly De La Cruz ranks 1st in the league in Steals (19) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit a home run in each of the Orioles' last three day games.
  • Adley Rutschman has recorded two or more hits in each of the Orioles' last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Adley Rutschman has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Orioles' last seven road games against NL Central opponents.
  • Adley Rutschman has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Orioles' last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Gunnar Henderson has scored at least one run in eight of the Orioles' last nine games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Dean Kremer has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Dean Kremer has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Austin Hays has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with the Orioles as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
  • Adley Rutschman has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Orioles as underdogs against NL opponents.
  • Gunnar Henderson ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (10) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 1st in the league for steals this season (57).
  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 29th in the league for hits this season (227).
  • The Baltimore Orioles rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (51).
  • The Baltimore Orioles rank T1st in the league for walks allowed this season (82).

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Baltimore comes into this matchup looking for the series sweep and they have had outstanding pitching in the first two games. The Orioles are 10-4 on the road this year, while Cincinnati is 9-9 at home. The Reds are really struggling right now, but they could turn things around against Kremer, who hasn’t been his best recently. For the Reds, Nick Lodolo needs to continue his strong start to the season, as he might not get much run support. My Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction is for the Reds to finally score some runs and pick up a much needed victory. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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