Rangers vs Astros Prediction - MLB Picks 10/22/23

Houston Astros (96-75) vs Texas Rangers (97-75)

Game Info: Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 8:03 pm (Minute Maid Park)

Framber Valdez (12-13) (3.73) vs Nathan Eovaldi (15-5) (3.46)

Betting Odds: Houston Astros -126 / Texas Rangers +108 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Texas Rangers will play the Houston Astros in Game 6 of the ALCS on Sunday night at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. Texas won both games in Houston to start the series, but Houston won all three games in Texas to take a 3-2 series lead.

Rangers Preview

The Texas Rangers face elimination in this game after losing all three of their home games in the series. Texas led 4-2 in the ninth inning in Game 5, but allowed Altuve to hit a three run homer to take the lead. The Rangers pitching staff was great in the first seven games of the postseason, but they have allowed 23 runs in the last three games. The Texas pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average this postseason. The Rangers offense has scored 51 runs with a .254 batting average and a .332 on base percentage. Adolis Garcia is batting .286 with four home runs and 11 RBI’s for the Rangers during the playoffs. The projected starting pitcher for Texas is Nathan Eovaldi, who is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over 19.2 innings pitched this postseason. 

Astros Preview

The Houston Astros are one win away from getting back to the World Series and they will have home field advantage in the next two games. Houston went into Texas and won Games 3, 4, and 5 by scores of 8-5, 10-3, and 5-4. The Astros offense has come to life in the last three games, but they have already lost twice at home during this series. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.44 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a .209 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 47 runs with a .250 batting average and a .319 on base percentage this postseason. Yordan Alvarez is batting .417 with six home runs and 13 RBI’s for the Astros. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Framber Valdez, who is 0-2 with a 11.57 ERA and a 2.57 WHIP over seven innings pitched this postseason. 

Houston Astros Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won each of the Astros' last eight games.
  • The road team has covered the run line in each of the last 10 games between the Rangers and Astros.
  • The Astros have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last six home games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as home favorites against American League opponents.
  • The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six home night games.

Texas Rangers Team Facts

  • The Rangers have won each of their last six games as road underdogs.
  • The Rangers have covered the run line in each of their last eight road games.
  • The Rangers have led after 7 innings in each of their last six playoff games as road underdogs.
  • The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last six playoff games as road underdogs.
  • The Rangers have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in four of the Astros' last five games as home favorites.
  • Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Astros' last six home playoff games.
  • Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in seven of the Astros' last eight playoff games as home favorites.
  • Framber Valdez has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances with the Astros as favorites.
  • Jose Abreu has recorded at least one hit in 19 of his last 20 home appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Framber Valdez has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night playoff games as starting pitcher.
  • Michael Brantley has recorded at least one Single in 15 of his last 16 home appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Chas McCormick has recorded at least one total base in each of the Astros' last eight games against AL opponents at Minute Maid Park.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

  • Adolis Garcia has hit a home run in each of the Rangers' last two games against AL West opponents.
  • Adolis Garcia has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Rangers' last four games against AL West opponents.
  • Corey Seager has scored a run in four of his five previous playoff appearances with his team as an underdog against AL West opponents.
  • Nathan Eovaldi has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • Leody Taveras has recorded at least one total base in each of the Rangers' last six games as road underdogs.
  • Jonah Heim has recorded a hit in each of the Rangers' last eight road games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Nathan Eovaldi has recorded a win in six of his seven previous playoff appearances as starting pitcher with his team as an underdog .
  • Marcus Semien has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Rangers' last nine road games against the Astros.
  • Corey Seager ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.327) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Houston Astros are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
  • The Houston Astros rank 5th in the league for runs scored this season (827).
  • The Texas Rangers rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.263).
  • The Texas Rangers rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (881).

Pick

Houston comes into this game with all of the momentum after stealing Game 5, but the road team has won every game in this series. The Rangers got a great start from Montgomery in Game 5, but spoiled it in the ninth inning. Texas will turn to Nathan Eovaldi here, who has allowed five earned runs over 19.2 innings this postseason. Houston is going with Framber Valdez, who has allowed nine earned runs over 7 innings of work during the playoffs. I can’t trust Valdez right now, so I am going with the Rangers to get a huge win. 

David’s Pick Rangers ML

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