Astros vs Rangers Prediction - MLB Picks 10/20/23

Texas Rangers (97-73) vs Houston Astros (94-75)

Game Info: Friday, October 20, 2023 at 5:07 pm (Globe Life Field)

Jordan Montgomery (12-11) (3.10) vs Justin Verlander (14-9) (3.09)

Betting Odds: Texas Rangers -110 / Houston Astros -110 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Houston Astros will play the Texas Rangers in Game 5 of the ALCS on Friday night at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Texas won the first two games in this series, but Houston has bounced back with two wins by scores of 8-5 and 10-3. 

Astros Preview

The Houston Astros lost Games 1 and 2 at home and they seemed like they were in trouble, but they have won Games 3 and 4 on the road to even the series. Houston’s offense has came to life after scoring four runs in the first two games, as they have scored 18 runs in their two wins. Houston as a chance to win this game and head back home up 3-2 with two straight home games left. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.38 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a .206 opponent batting average this postseason. The Astros offense has scored 42 runs with a .254 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez is batting .419 with six home runs and 13 RBI’s for the Astros. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Justin Verlander, who is 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 12.2 innings pitched this postseason. 

Rangers Preview

The Texas Rangers were absolutely rolling this postseason, as they won their first seven games, but they have struggled to stop Houston from scoring in the last two games. The Rangers pitching staff was very good in the first seven games of the playoffs and they need to bounce back in this game. I know the series is 2-2, but this feels like a must win because Games 6 and 7 are in Houston. The Texas pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Rangers offense has scored 47 runs with a .256 batting average and a .335 on base percentage this postseason. Corey Seager is batting .355 with two home runs and four RBI’s for the Rangers. The projected stating pitcher for Texas is Jordan Montgomery, who is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 17.1 innings pitched this postseason. 

Texas Rangers Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won each of the last seven games between the Astros and Rangers at Globe Life Field.
  • The road team has covered the run line in each of the last nine games between the Astros and Rangers.
  • The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Rangers have led after 7 innings in each of their last five day playoff games.

Houston Astros Team Facts

  • The Astros have won 16 of their last 17 games as road underdogs.
  • The Astros have covered the run line in 16 of their last 17 games as road underdogs.
  • The Astros have led after 3 innings in four of their last six games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
  • The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last five playoff games as road underdogs.
  • The Astros have led after 7 innings in each of their last seven playoff games as road underdogs.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

  • Corey Seager has hit a home run in three of the Rangers' last four games as home favorites.
  • Adolis Garcia has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Rangers' last four games against AL opponents at Globe Life Field.
  • Adolis Garcia has scored at least one run in seven of the Rangers' last eight games at Globe Life Field.
  • Jordan Montgomery has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his 12 previous home appearances against AL West opponents.
  • Jonah Heim has recorded at least one total base in each of the Rangers' last seven day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Adolis Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rangers' last 10 day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Marcus Semien has recorded at least one Single in each of his five previous playoff appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.
  • Corey Seager ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.327) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Jose Abreu has hit at least one home run in four of the Astros' last five road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine appearances against the Rangers at Globe Life Field.
  • Jose Abreu has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Astros' last eight road games.
  • Jose Altuve has scored at least one run in 16 of his last 18 road appearances against the Rangers.
  • Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • Justin Verlander has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 appearances against the Rangers.
  • Justin Verlander has recorded a win in seven of his last eight road appearances against the Rangers.
  • Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Single in each of the Astros' last eight road games against AL West opponents.
  • Kyle Tucker has recorded a Double in three of the Astros' last four road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Texas Rangers rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.263).
  • The Texas Rangers rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (881).
  • The Houston Astros are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
  • The Houston Astros rank 5th in the league for runs scored this season (827).

Pick

Texas comes into this game needing a win very badly, and they will turn to Jordan Montgomery on the mound. Montgomery has pitched three times in the postseason so far, allowing 0 earned runs against Houston and Tampa Bay, but allowing four earned runs against Baltimore. The Astros are looking to take all three games in Texas, and they will go with Verlander in this game. Justin Verlander has allowed two earned runs over 12.2 innings during the postseason. I know we have seen three high scoring games in a row, but I like the under in this matchup. Both of these pitchers have been solid and I think runs will be at a premium. Take the under here. 

David’s Pick Under 8.5

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