Rangers vs Astros Prediction - MLB Picks 10/15/23

Houston Astros Team Facts

• The underdogs have won seven of the Astros' last eight games at Minute Maid Park.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as home favorites against the Rangers following a win.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in four of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five home night games.

Texas Rangers Team Facts

• The Rangers have lost each of their last 10 road games against the Astros following a win.
• The Rangers have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a win.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last four playoff games as road underdogs.
• The Rangers have led after 7 innings in each of their last four playoff games as road underdogs.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rangers' last four games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in four of the Astros' last five games against AL opponents.
• Jose Abreu has recorded at least one RBI in nine of his last 10 appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Yordan Alvarez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Astros' last six games as favorites against AL opponents.
• Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in each of the Astros' last six playoff games at Minute Maid Park.
• Michael Brantley has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against the Rangers after not playing the previous day.
• Jose Altuve has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against the Rangers after not playing the previous day.
• Michael Brantley has recorded at least one Single in 14 of his last 15 home appearances after not playing the previous day.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

• Mitch Garver has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Rangers as underdogs against the Astros.
• Mitch Garver has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Josh Jung has scored at least one run in each of the Rangers' last four games against AL opponents.
• Nathaniel Lowe has recorded at least one total base in each of the Rangers' last eight games against the Astros at Minute Maid Park.
• Nathaniel Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rangers' last eight road games against the Astros.
• Jonah Heim has recorded a Single in each of the Rangers' last seven games.
• Corey Seager ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.327) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Houston Astros are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Houston Astros rank 5th in the league for runs scored this season (827).
• The Texas Rangers rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.263).
• The Texas Rangers rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (881).

Pick

These two teams battled for most of the season in the AL West race, and they will meet in Game 1 of the ALCS here. Texas played pretty inconsistently over the last couple of months of the regular season, but they are undefeated through two series in the postseason. Houston won the AL West on the last day of the regular season and they took care of the Twins pretty easily last series. Houston is starting Justin Verlander, who went six innings and didn’t allow a run in his first start this postseason. Verlander went seven innings and allowed one earned run in his last start against Texas, which was on September 6th. Texas is starting Jordan Montgomery, who pitched well in his first start this postseason, but allowed four earned runs in his second start against Baltimore. Montgomery allowed one earned run over 6.2 innings against the Astros earlier this season, but that start was with the Cardinals. Texas has looked very good in their first five games this postseason, and I am going to take them here, against a Houston team that wasn’t great at home this season.