Braves vs Phillies Prediction - MLB Picks 10/12/23

Philadelphia Phillies (93-73) vs Atlanta Braves (105-59)

Game Info: Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 6:07 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

Ranger Suarez (4-6) (4.06) vs Spencer Strider (20-6) (3.76)

Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies +130 / Atlanta Braves -154 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Atlanta Braves will play the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of their series on Thursday night at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Philadelphia comes into this game with a 2-1 series lead after they won Games 1 and 3 by scores of 3-0 and 10-2. Atlanta did win Game 2 by a score of 5-4. 

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves were the best team in the MLB during the regular season, but they are facing elimination in this game. Atlanta scored the most runs in the MLB this season, but they have struggled in the two losses in this series, scoring a total of two runs in those games. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 4.85 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and a .263 opponent batting average this postseason. The Braves offense has scored seven runs with a .196 batting average and a .257 on base percentage. Ozzie Albies is batting .364 with one RBI and two walks for the Braves this postseason. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Spencer Strider, who is 0-1 with a 1.29 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over seven innings this postseason. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a chance to eliminate the Braves in this game and they will have the home field advantage as well. Philadelphia eliminated the Marlins in two games in the Wild Card round and they are one win away from reaching the NLCS. The Phillies have allowed a total of nine runs in their five postseason games. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 1.64 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a .195 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 28 runs with a .267 batting average and a .348 on base percentage this postseason. Bryce Harper is batting .353 with three home runs and five RBI’s for the Phillies this postseason. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.55 WHIP over 3.2 innings pitched this postseason. 

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have won nine of their last 10 games at Citizens Bank Park.
  • The Phillies have covered the run line each of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last three home games.
  • The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last three home games.
  • The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have won each of their last eight Thursday night games against National League opponents.
  • The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five playoff games against NL East opponents.
  • The Braves have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
  • The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four playoff games as favorites.
  • The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four playoff games as favorites.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in each of the Phillies' last three playoff games as home underdogs.
  • J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies' last four games against NL East opponents.
  • Bryce Harper has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies' last eight games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ranger Suarez has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances.
  • Trea Turner has recorded a hit in each of his last nine playoff appearances.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one Double in three of the Phillies' last four home games against NL opponents.
  • Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Single in 22 of his last 25 home appearances against the Braves.
  • Rhys Hoskins has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Bryce Harper ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.401) this season.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Spencer Strider has recorded nine or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in each of his last seven road appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Matt Olson has recorded at least one total base in each of the Braves' last 11 games against NL opponents.
  • Matt Olson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last 11 games against NL opponents.
  • Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven road playoff appearances.
  • Travis d'Arnaud has hit a home run in each of his last two playoff appearances with the Braves as favorites against the Phillies.
  • Travis d'Arnaud has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven playoff appearances with the Braves as favorites.
  • Spencer Strider has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances with the Braves as road favorites against NL East opponents.
  • Michael Harris has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks 1st in the league in Steals (73) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 5th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.438).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 5 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (307).
  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for RBI's this season (916).

Pick

Atlanta comes into this game trying to avoid elimination and they will turn to one of their best pitchers. The Braves will start Spencer Strider, who allowed one earned run over seven innings against the Phillies in Game 1. Philadelphia is starting Ranger Suarez, who went 3.2 innings and allowed one hit and one walk in Game 1. The Braves offense needs to wake up, or they will be going home much earlier than they anticipated. I am going to roll with Atlanta in this game, as I think Strider is going to have another great outing. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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