Braves vs Phillies Prediction - MLB Picks 10/11/23

Philadelphia Phillies (93-73) vs Atlanta Braves (105-59)

Game Info: Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 5:07 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

Aaron Nola (13-9) (4.31) vs () ()

Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -114 / Atlanta Braves +104 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies face off on Wednesday in Game 3 of their NLDS series at Citizens Bank Park. The two teams are currently tied 1-1 in the series.

Braves Have The Momentum

If Game 2 was only seven innings the Phillies would have the momentum heading into this game, but they played nine innings and that was enough for them to secure the win. They scored two runs in the 8th innings and two runs in the 9th inning. Travis d’Arnaud and Austin Riley both hit a home run. In Game 2 the starting pitching wasn’t good enough, and that is something that can’t be the case here.

Braves Betting Trends

The Braves have won each of their last three playoff games as underdogs after not playing the previous day.
The Braves have covered the run line in eight of their last nine playoff games as underdogs after not playing the previous day.
The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four playoff games.
The Braves have led after 7 innings in six of their last nine playoff games as underdogs.

How do the Phillies Bounce Back?

It really looked like the Phillies might take a 2-0 series lead, but the bullpen blew the game late, and now they seem to have zero momentum heading into this game. Even though they might not have the momentum, they still have the home field advantage now, but the pressure is on them heading into this game. In the first two games the Phillies have given up only four runs total. On the mound for the Phillies is Aaron Nola who has been good so far in the playoffs. Against the Malins he went seven innings giving up three hits and zero runs.

Phillies Betting Trends

The Phillies have won each of their last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents following a loss.
The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six playoff games against NL East opponents.
The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Phillies have led after 7 innings in each of their last six home games against NL East opponents.
The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last four games as home favorites against NL East opponents.

Shane’s Free Pick

Even though the Braves have the momentum heading into this game they are going to lose this game. Aaron Nola gave up zero runs in his last start and the Braves offense hasn’t been exactly elite heading into this game. The Braves bats are going to really struggle here, and they will finish with only one two runs total. The Phillies bullpen will be better here after Nola goes six or seven runs and that is going to be the difference as the Phillies are going to get the job done. Back the Phillies on the money line.