Twins vs Astros Prediction - MLB Picks 10/7/23

Houston Astros (90-72) vs Minnesota Twins (89-75)

Game Info: Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 4:45 pm (Minute Maid Park)

Justin Verlander (13-8) (3.22) vs Bailey Ober (8-6) (3.43)

Betting Odds: Houston Astros -155 / Minnesota Twins +130 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Minnesota Twins will play the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday afternoon at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. Minnesota swept the Blue Jays in two games in the Wild Card round, while Houston didn’t have to play in the Wild Card round. 

Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins went 87-75 in the regular season and they played very well in the Wild Card round against Toronto. Minnesota won both games against the Blue Jays by scores of 3-1 and 2-0. The Twins also finished the regular season playing very well, winning eight of their last eleven games. The Minnesota pitching staff had a 3.87 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average this season. The Twins offense has scored 778 runs with a .243 batting average and a .326 on base percentage during the regular season. Carlos Correa went 3-7 with one RBI in the Wild Card round. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Bailey Ober, who is 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 144.1 innings pitched this year.

Astros Preview

The Houston Astros went 90-72 during the regular season and they finished the season by winning four in a row and five of their last six games. Houston is coming off of a series sweep against Arizona, where they won all three games and allowed two total runs in the three games. The Houston pitching staff had a 3.94 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average in the regular season. The Astros offense has scored 827 runs with a .259 batting average and a .331 on base percentage this year. Kyle Tucker is batting .284 with 29 home runs and 112 RBI’s for the Astros. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Justin Verlander, who is 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 162.1 innings pitched this season.

Houston Astros Team Facts

  • The Astros have won each of their last eight day playoff games against AL Central opponents.
  • The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Astros' last six games at Minute Maid Park.
  • The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as home favorites.
  • The Astros have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four games as home favorites.
  • The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as home favorites against American League opponents.

Minnesota Twins Team Facts

  • The Twins have won four of their last five games as road underdogs against AL West opponents following a home win.
  • The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against AL West opponents following a home win.
  • The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last three road games.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last three day games against AL West opponents.
  • The Twins have led after 7 innings in each of their last four games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Chas McCormick has hit at least one home run in three of the Astros' last four games as home favorites against AL Central opponents.
  • Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Astros' last eight games against AL Central opponents.
  • Yordan Alvarez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Astros' last eight games as favorites against AL Central opponents.
  • Jose Altuve has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine home appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Justin Verlander has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last five home appearances against the Twins.
  • Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros' last 10 games against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

  • Michael A. Taylor has hit a home run in three of his last six road playoff appearances.
  • Max Kepler has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine Saturday appearances.
  • Jorge Polanco has scored a run in each of his last six appearances with the Twins as underdogs against AL opponents.
  • Carlos Correa has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances in day playoff games.
  • Carlos Correa has recorded a hit in each of his last nine appearances in day playoff games.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Houston Astros are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
  • The Houston Astros rank 5th in the league for runs scored this season (827).
  • The Minnesota Twins rank T3rd in the league for home runs this season (233).
  • The Minnesota Twins rank T3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (659).

Pick

Houston comes into this game with the home field advantage and plenty of rest, but Minnesota is coming off of a dominant series win against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Both of these teams have very solid team ERA’s, but they are also both in the top-10 for runs scored. Minnesota is starting Bailey Ober, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight outings. Houston is starting Justin Verlander, who has allowed one earned run in his last 13 innings of work. Verlander has been inconsistent this season, but I like the Astros lineup a lot more than Minnesota’s. Take the Astros to win Game 1. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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