Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Prediction - MLB Picks 10/7/23

Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (86-78)

Game Info: Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 9:20 pm (Dodger Stadium)

Clayton Kershaw (13-5) (2.46) vs Merrill Kelly (12-8) (3.29)

Betting Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers -198 / Arizona Diamondbacks +164 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Arizona Diamondbacks will play the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday night at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California. Arizona is coming off of a series win against the Brewers in the Wild Card round, while Los Angeles won the NL West and didn’t play in the Wild Card round.

Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks finished the regular season with an 84-78 record and they swept the Brewers in two games in the Wild Card round. Arizona won Games 1 and 2 by scores of 6-3 and 5-2 in Milwaukee. The Diamondbacks finished the regular season by losing four straight games, three to Houston and one to the White Sox. The Arizona pitching staff had a 4.48 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a .251 opponent batting average in the regular season. The Diamondbacks offense scored 746 runs with a .250 batting average and a .322 on base percentage this year. Corbin Carroll went 4-7 with one home run, one double, and two RBI’s in the Wild Card round. The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Merrill Kelly, who is 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 177.2 innings pitched this year.

Dodgers Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers went 100-62 this year and they ran away with the NL West, as they won by 16 games over these Diamondbacks. Los Angeles finished the season by winning two out of three games against the Giants on the road. The Dodgers allowed two runs or fewer in five of their last six games. The Los Angeles pitching staff had a 4.06 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average this year. The Dodgers offense has scored 906 runs with a .257 batting average and a .340 on base percentage. Freddie Freeman is batting .331 with 29 home runs and 102 RBI’s for the Dodgers. The projected starting pitcher for Los Angeles is Clayton Kershaw, who is 13-5 with a 2.46 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 131.2 innings pitched this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers Team Facts

  • The Dodgers have lost four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents following a road win.
  • The Dodgers have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
  • The Dodgers have trailed after 7 innings in four of their last five playoff games as favorites.
  • The Dodgers have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Dodgers' last five games at Dodger Stadium.

Arizona Diamondbacks Team Facts

  • The Diamondbacks have won each of their last seven games against National League opponents.
  • The Diamondbacks have covered the run line each of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Dodger Stadium against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks' last four games as underdogs against National League opponents.
  • The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games against National League opponents.

Los Angeles Dodgers Player Prop Facts

  • Freddie Freeman has hit a home run in three of the Dodgers' last five night games.
  • J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances with the Dodgers as favorites against the Diamondbacks.
  • Will Smith has scored a run in nine of his last 10 appearances against the Diamondbacks after not playing the previous day.
  • Clayton Kershaw has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 Saturday appearances at Dodger Stadium.
  • Max Muncy has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances at Dodger Stadium against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • Max Muncy has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances at Dodger Stadium against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • Mookie Betts ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.579) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

  • Ketel Marte has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with the Diamondbacks as underdogs.
  • Ketel Marte has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Diamondbacks' last five games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Corbin Carroll has scored at least one run in eight of the Diamondbacks' last nine road games.
  • Corbin Carroll has recorded at least one total base in each of the Diamondbacks' last eight games against NL opponents.
  • Corbin Carroll has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks' last eight games against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers rank 2nd in the league for RBI's this season (877).
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers rank 2nd in the league for slugging percentage this season (.455).
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1247).
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks rank T23rd in the league for strikeouts this season (1351).

Pick

The Dodgers come into the postseason as one of the favorites to win the World Series and they will be at home for this game, where they are 53-28 this year. Arizona was only 41-40 on the road this year, but they did win two road games against Milwaukee in the Wild Card round. Arizona is starting Merrill Kelly, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts and four out of five outings. The Dodgers are starting Clayton Kershaw, who has allowed two earned runs in his last three starts (14.1 IP). Both of these pitchers have pitched very well in recent outings, but I have to give the edge to the Dodgers here. Los Angeles has been great at home and they are the better team. Take the Dodgers -1.5 here. 

David’s Pick Dodgers -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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