Reds vs Cardinals Prediction - MLB Picks 9/29/23

St. Louis Cardinals (69-90) vs Cincinnati Reds (81-78)

Game Info: Friday, September 29, 2023 at 8:15 pm (Busch Stadium)

Jake Woodford (2-2) (5.09) vs Brandon Williamson (4-5) (4.54)

Betting Odds: St. Louis Cardinals -128 / Cincinnati Reds +109 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds do battle Friday night in game 1 of an MLB series at Busch Stadium. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Reds need a win after losing 6 of their last 10 games. The Reds are 1.5 games back in the NL wild card race. The Reds pitching staff is 25th in ERA (4.79), 24th in WHIP (1.41) and 27th in quality starts (43). The Reds' offense is 11th in runs per game (4.75), 17th in batting average (.247) and 15th in homers (189). Spencer Steer leads the Reds with 154 hits and 85 RBI, while TJ Friedl and Tyler Stephenson have combined for 245 hits and 118 RBI. Brandon Williamson gets the ball, and he is 4-5 with a 4.54 ERA and 96 strikeouts this season. This will be Williamson’s second career game against the Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have lost five of their last six games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • The Reds have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last 10 games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three road games.
  • The Reds have trailed after 7 innings in seven of their last 10 games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The Cardinals need a win after losing 7 of their last 10 games. The Cardinals have the third-worst record in the NL. The Cardinals pitching staff is 24th in ERA (4.76), 27th in WHIP (1.45) and 24th in quality starts (47). The Cardinals' offense is 20th in runs per game (4.39), 15th in batting average (.249) and 11th in homers (207). Paul Goldschmidt leads the Cardinals with 157 hits and 79 RBI, while Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman have combined for 264 hits and 140 RBI. Jake Woodford gets the ball, and he is 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. Woodford is 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his career against the Reds.

St. Louis Cardinals Team Facts

  • The Cardinals have won each of their last 10 night games against the Reds following a loss.
  • The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Reds following a road loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last six night games between the Reds and Cardinals.
  • The Cardinals have won the first inning in each of their last three night games against the Reds.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The St. Louis Cardinals rank T29th in the league for triples this season (12).
  • The St. Louis Cardinals rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (1186).
  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 1st in the league for steals this season (188).
  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (35).

Randy’s Pick

This line is strange. Yes, the Cardinals are at home, but they have nothing to play for at this stage, and they're playing like it. Jake Woodford also isn't a pitcher who I'm laying juice with, given his 5.09 ERA in a short sample size. The Reds need a win to stay in the wild card conversation, and you can argue Brandon Williamson is the better starter here with his 4.54 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. This line makes no sense to me, as it's a must win for the Reds. Give me the road team and the more favorable price.

Randy’s Pick Cincinnati Reds +109

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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