Nationals vs Braves Prediction - MLB Picks 9/29/23

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The Washington Nationals will play the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Atlanta comes into this game on a four game winning streak, while Washington has lost three in a row. 

Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals are 69-90 this season and they have lost five of their last six games. Washington is coming off of a series loss to Baltimore, where they lost both games played. The Nationals have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last six games. The Washington pitching staff has a 4.99 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a .271 opponent batting average this season. The Nationals offense has scored 677 runs with a .253 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Lane Thomas is batting .266 with 27 home runs and 85 RBI’s for the Nationals. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Trevor Williams, who is 6-10 with a 5.55 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP over 141 innings pitched this year. 

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 103-56 this season and they have won six of their last seven games. Atlanta is coming off of a series win against the Cubs, where they won all three games. The Braves have scored 5+ runs in eight of their last nine games. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 927 runs with a .274 batting average and a .342 on base percentage this year. Matt Olson is batting .281 with 54 home runs and 136 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Allan Winans, who is 1-2 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 27 innings pitched this season.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have won 15 of their last 16 night games against National League opponents following a home win.
  • The Braves have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against the Nationals at Truist Park following a home win.
  • The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
  • The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Braves' last four home games against NL East opponents.

Washington Nationals Team Facts

  • The Nationals have lost each of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
  • The Nationals have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games at Truist Park following a road loss.
  • The Nationals have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Nationals' last five Friday games.
  • The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against National League opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Marcell Ozuna has hit at least one home run in four of the Braves' last five games at Truist Park against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in eight of the Braves' last nine games as home favorites.
  • Matt Olson has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Braves' last seven games at Truist Park against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Matt Olson has scored at least one run in each of the Braves' last nine night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Matt Olson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last 13 games at Truist Park.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks 1st in the league in Steals (70) this season.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

  • Luis Garcia has hit a home run in each of the Nationals' last two games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
  • Joey Meneses has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Nationals' last four games against the Braves at Truist Park.
  • Joey Meneses has recorded two total bases in each of the Nationals' last four games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
  • Luis Garcia has scored at least one run in each of the Nationals' last six games as underdogs against NL opponents.
  • Trevor Williams has recorded three or more strikeouts in eight of his nine previous appearances against the Braves.
  • Lane Thomas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Friday appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (304).
  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for RBI's this season (897).
  • The Washington Nationals rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (1128).
  • The Washington Nationals rank 28th in the league for walks this season (412).

Pick

Atlanta comes into this game with the best record in all of baseball and they are one of the best home teams in the league as well. The Braves have the number one offense in the MLB and they are facing Trevor Williams, who has allowed 17 earned runs in his last 10.1 innings of work. Atlanta is starting Allan Winans, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Braves have dominated the season series with Washington and I like them to win this game by at least two runs. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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