Cubs vs Brewers Prediction - MLB Picks 9/29/23

Milwaukee Brewers (90-69) vs Chicago Cubs (82-77)

Game Info: Friday, September 29, 2023 at 8:10 pm (American Family Field)

Colin Rea (6-6) (4.74) vs Kyle Hendricks (6-8) (3.66)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Brewers -105 / Chicago Cubs -115 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Chicago Cubs will play the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Milwaukee has already clinched the NL Central, while Chicago is fighting in the NL Wild Card race. 

Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 82-77 this season and they have lost three games in a row. Chicago is coming off of a series loss to the Braves, where they lost all three games. The Cubs have allowed 6+ runs in nine of their last 14 games. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average this season. The Cubs offense has scored 806 runs with a .255 batting average and a .330 on base percentage. Cody Bellinger is batting .310 with 26 home runs and 96 RBI’s for the Cubs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Kyle Hendricks, who is 6-8 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 132.2 innings pitched this year. 

Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 90-69 this season and they have won six of their last nine games. Milwaukee is coming off of a series win against the Cardinals, where they won two out of three games. The Brewers have allowed three runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games. The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .226 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 714 runs with a .239 batting average and a .319 on base percentage this year. William Contreras is batting .289 with 17 home runs and 77 RBI’s for the Brewers. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Colin Rea, who is 6-6 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 119.2 innings pitched this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Team Facts

  • The Brewers have won five of their last six games as home underdogs.
  • The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last eight games between the Cubs and Brewers.
  • The Brewers have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last five games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
  • The Brewers have led after 7 innings in five of their last six games as home underdogs against National League opponents.

Chicago Cubs Team Facts

  • The Cubs have lost each of their last eight road games against National League opponents.
  • The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as road favorites.
  • The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cubs' last three night games at American Family Field.
  • The Cubs have trailed after 7 innings in five of their last six games as road favorites.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

  • Christian Yelich has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Brewers as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
  • Willy Adames has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Brewers' last four home games against the Cubs.
  • Christian Yelich has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Brewers' last six home games against the Cubs.
  • William Contreras has scored at least one run in each of the Brewers' last six games as home underdogs.
  • William Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers' last 15 games.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Cody Bellinger has hit a home run in three of the Cubs' last four road games against NL Central opponents.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Cubs' last six games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • Ian Happ has scored a run in seven of the Cubs' last eight night games.
  • Kyle Hendricks has recorded four or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances in night games.
  • Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one total base in each of the Cubs' last eight road games against NL Central opponents.
  • Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs' last nine games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • Cody Bellinger ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.310) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Milwaukee Brewers rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1194).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (634).
  • The Chicago Cubs rank 6th in the league for walks this season (559).
  • The Chicago Cubs rank T6th in the league for home runs allowed this season (176).

Pick

Chicago comes into this series currently a half game out of the last spot in the NL Wild Card race and really needs to get at least two wins in this series. Milwaukee has wrapped up the NL Central and will have home field advantage this weekend. Chicago is starting Kyle Hendricks, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The Brewers are starting Colin Rea, who has allowed two earned runs over his last three relief appearances (10.1 IP). Chicago is the desperate team in this matchup, but I also think they have the pitching advantage, so I am going to take the Cubs here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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