Rangers vs Mariners Prediction - MLB Picks 9/28/23

Seattle Mariners (85-73) vs Texas Rangers (89-69)

Game Info: Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 9:40 pm (T-Mobile Park)

Logan Gilbert (13-7) (3.75) vs Jordan Montgomery (10-11) (3.25)

Betting Odds: Seattle Mariners -125 / Texas Rangers +105 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Texas Rangers will play the Seattle Mariners in Game 1 of their series on Thursday night at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. Texas comes into this series playing very well and they are leading the AL West, while Seattle is currently on the outside looking in on the playoff race. 

Rangers Preview

The Texas Rangers are 89-69 this season and they have won seven of their last eight games. Texas is coming off of a series win against the Angels, where they won two out of three games on the road. The Rangers have scored 5+ runs in six of their last eight games. The Texas pitching staff has a 4.30 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .246 opponent batting average this season. The Rangers offense has scored 873 runs with a .265 batting average and a .339 on base percentage. Adolis Garcia is batting .245 with 38 home runs and 106 RBI’s for the Rangers. The projected starting pitcher for Texas is Jordan Montgomery, who is 10-11 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 182.2 innings pitched this year.

Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners are 85-73 this season and they have lost five of their last six games. Seattle is coming off of a series loss to the Houston Astros, where they lost two out of three games. The Mariners were swept by Texas just two series ago. The Seattle pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Mariners offense has scored 745 runs with a .243 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this year. Julio Rodriguez is batting .280 with 31 home runs and 102 RBI’s for the Mariners. The projected starting pitcher for Seattle is Logan Gilbert, who is 13-7 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 184.2 innings pitched this season.

Seattle Mariners Team Facts

  • The Mariners have won each of their last 11 night games against the Rangers following a home loss.
  • The Mariners have failed to cover the run line eight of their last nine night games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mariners' last six games as favorites against American League opponents.

Texas Rangers Team Facts

  • The Rangers have won each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Rangers have covered the run line each of their last six night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Rangers have led after 7 innings in each of their last seven games against the Mariners.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rangers' last five Thursday games against American League opponents.
  • The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games against opponents that held a winning record.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

  • Julio Rodriguez has hit a home run in six of his last 13 appearances with the Mariners as favorites against AL opponents.
  • Julio Rodriguez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six appearances with the Mariners as home favorites against AL West opponents.
  • Eugenio Suarez has scored at least one run in each of the Mariners' last six Thursday games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ty France has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners' last six home games against the Rangers.
  • Ty France has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mariners' last six home games against the Rangers.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

  • Marcus Semien has hit at least one home run in three of the Rangers' last four games against AL West opponents.
  • Jonah Heim has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Rangers' last six night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
  • Marcus Semien has scored at least one run in seven of the Rangers' last eight games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
  • Mitch Garver has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight road appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • Nathaniel Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rangers' last 12 road games against the Mariners.
  • Corey Seager ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.333) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Seattle Mariners rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (404).
  • The Seattle Mariners rank 3rd in the league for ERA this season (3.78).
  • The Texas Rangers rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.265).
  • The Texas Rangers rank 2nd in the league for slugging percentage this season (.458).

Pick

Seattle comes into the final series of the regular season 1.5 games behind the Astros for the last AL Wild Card spot, which makes all four of these games very important. Seattle will be at home, where they are 42-35 on the season, and Texas has had plenty of struggles on the road this year. Seattle has the better pitching staff, while Texas has one of the best lineups in the MLB. The Mariners are starting Logan Gilbert, who has allowed 2, 5, 3, and 3 earned runs in his last four starts. Gilbert went 5.2 innings against Texas on September 23rd and allowed five hits, four walks, and two earned runs. The Rangers are starting Jordan Montgomery, who has allowed one earned run in his last three starts (21 IP). Montgomery went seven innings against Seattle on September 23rd and allowed five hits, two walks, and no runs. I have to lean towards the Rangers in this matchup.

David’s Pick Rangers ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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