Marlins vs Mets Prediction - MLB Picks 9/28/23

New York Mets (72-86) vs Miami Marlins (82-76)

Game Info: Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)

David Peterson (3-8) (5.37) vs Jesus Luzardo (10-9) (3.89)

Betting Odds: New York Mets +110 / Miami Marlins -120 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Miami Marlins and New York Mets clash Thursday in game 3 of an MLB series at Citi Field. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Marlins look for a win after winning 6 of their last 10 games. The Marlins are currently in the third NL wild card spot. The Marlins pitching staff is 16th in ERA (4.27), 16th in WHIP (1.29) and 18th in quality starts (50). The Marlins' offense is 25th in runs per game (4.15), 4th in batting average (.259) and 23rd in homers (165). Luis Arraez leads the Marlins with 202 hits and 69 RBI, while Bryan De La Cruz and Jorge Soler have combined for 267 hits and 151 RBI. Jesus Luzardo gets the ball, and he is 10-9 with a 3.73 ERA and 198 strikeouts this season. Luzardo is 2-1 with a 4.21 ERA and 27 strikeouts in his career against the Mets.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

The Marlins have lost each of their last eight games at Citi Field following a win.
The underdogs have covered the run line in 12 of the Marlins' last 13 games.
The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last nine games as road favorites against National League opponents.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last six games as road favorites.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The Mets need a win after losing 6 of their last 10 games. The Mets are 1 of 6 NL teams out of the playoff race, so they’re playing spoiler. The Mets pitching staff is 18th in ERA (4.31), 21st in WHIP (1.36) and 13th in quality starts (57). The Mets offense is 18th in runs per game (4.43), 24th in batting average (.239) and 10th in homers (210). Brandon Nimmo leads the Mets with 161 hits and 68 RBI, while Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor have combined for 308 hits and 151 RBI. David Peterson gets the ball, and he is 3-8 with a 5.37 ERA and 120 strikeouts this season. Peterson is 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 31 strikeouts in his career against the Marlins.

New York Mets Team Facts

The Mets have won each of their last 12 games against the Marlins following a loss.
The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as home underdogs.
The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last three games as home underdogs.
The Mets have led after 5 innings in four of their last six games as home underdogs.
The Mets have led after 7 innings in four of their last six games as home underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

The New York Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (218).
The New York Mets rank 27th in the league for hits this season (1254).
The Miami Marlins rank 4th in the league for batting average this season (.259).
The Miami Marlins rank 27th in the league for walks this season (420).

Randy’s Pick

as I've said in previous write-ups, I like taking teams that have something to play for at this stage. The Marlins end a win to keep their wild card spot, while the Mets are an overpaid underachiever that could easily bow out. Jesus Luzardo has also been great this season with a 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and averaging 10.4 strikeouts per 9 innings. David Peterson has an ERA over 5 and a 1.60 WHIP. If the Marlins are a legit playoff team, this is a game they win. It's that simple. No excuses. Give me the Marlins and the cheap price.