Cubs vs Braves Prediction - MLB Picks 9/28/23

Atlanta Braves (102-56) vs Chicago Cubs (82-76)

Game Info: Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 7:20 pm (Truist Park)

AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0) (4.57) vs Marcus Stroman (10-8) (3.88)

Betting Odds: Atlanta Braves / Chicago Cubs --- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Chicago Cubs will play the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of their series on Thursday night at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. The Braves have won the first two games in this series by scores of 7-6 and 6-5. 

Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 82-76 this season and they have lost nine of their last thirteen games. Prior to this series, Chicago did sweep the Rockies at home. The Cubs are now tied with the Marlins for the last NL Wild Card spot, with the Reds just 1.5 games back. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average this year. The Cubs offense has scored 803 runs with a .255 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Cody Bellinger is batting .310 with 26 home runs and 96 RBI’s for the Cubs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Marcus Stroman, who is 10-8 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 134.2 innings pitched this season.

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 102-56 this season and they have won five of their last six games. Prior to this series, Atlanta won three out of four games against the Nationals. The Braves have scored 6+ runs in five of their last six games. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 922 runs with a .275 batting average and a .343 on base percentage this season. Ronald Acuna is batting .336 with 41 home runs and 104 RBI’s, while also stealing 70 bases for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is AJ Smith-Shawver, who is 1-0 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 21.2 innings pitched this year.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have won each of their last six night games against National League opponents.
  • The Braves have failed to cover the run line seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as favorites.
  • The Braves have trailed after 7 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites.

Chicago Cubs Team Facts

  • The Cubs have lost each of their last seven road games against National League opponents.
  • The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss.
  • The Cubs have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs.
  • The Cubs have led after 7 innings in each of their last five games against National League opponents.
  • The Cubs have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Marcell Ozuna has hit at least one home run in four of the Braves' last five games at Truist Park against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Braves' last six home games against NL Central opponents.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last nine appearances in night games.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in each of his last 13 appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Matt Olson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last 12 games at Truist Park.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks 1st in the league in Steals (70) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Marcus Stroman has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with the Cubs as road underdogs against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

Pick

The Cubs come into this game really needing a win, but they will play the best team in the MLB here. Atlanta is 50-27 at home and they are back on the right track after going through a minor rough patch last week. The Braves are starting AJ Smith-Shawver, who allowed 3, 5, 3, and 0 earned runs in his last four starts in June/July. The Cubs are starting Marcus Stroman, who has allowed 20 earned runs in his last 16 innings of work. Stroman has struggled for the Cubs, but he has only pitched six innings since coming off of the IL. I think this is a game that the Cubs can win, but they will need Stroman to get them off to a good start. I like the Cubs here. 

David’s Pick Cubs ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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