Athletics vs Twins Prediction - MLB Picks 9/28/23

Minnesota Twins (85-73) vs Oakland Athletics (48-110)

Game Info: Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 1:10 pm (Target Field)

Sonny Gray (8-8) (2.80) vs Luis Medina (3-10) (5.64)

Betting Odds: Minnesota Twins -265 / Oakland Athletics +215 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Oakland Athletics will play the Minnesota Twins in Game 3 of their series on Thursday afternoon at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Minnesota has won the first two games in this series by scores of 11-3 and 6-4. 

Athletics Preview

The Oakland Athletics are 48-110 this season and they have lost 11 of their last 13 games. Prior to this series, Oakland split a four game series with Detroit at home. The Athletics have scored 3 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 13 games. The Oakland pitching staff has a 5.52 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a .267 opponent batting average this season. The Athletics offense has scored 572 runs with a .224 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Brent Rooker is batting .245 with 29 home runs and 67 RBI’s for the Athletics. The projected starting pitcher for Oakland is Luis Medina, who is 3-10 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP over 103.2 innings pitched this year. 

Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 85-73 this season and they have won six of their last seven games. Minnesota came into this series after taking two out of three games against the Angels and the Reds. The Twins have scored 6+ runs in five of their last seven games. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Twins offense has scored 754 runs with a .243 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this year. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Sonny Gray, who is 8-8 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 180 innings pitched this season.

Minnesota Twins Team Facts

  • The Twins have won each of their last 10 games as favorites against the Athletics.
  • The Twins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against AL West opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last five day games against American League opponents.
  • The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against American League opponents.

Oakland Athletics Team Facts

  • The Athletics have lost each of their last 11 Thursday games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Athletics have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Athletics have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Athletics' last four road games against AL Central opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

  • Jorge Polanco has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Kyle Farmer has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven appearances with the Twins as home favorites against AL West opponents.
  • Sonny Gray has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his four previous appearances at Target Field against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
  • Max Kepler has scored at least one run in each of his last eight appearances with the Twins as favorites against AL opponents.
  • Christian Vazquez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Athletics.
  • Kyle Farmer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Twins' last seven games as favorites.

Oakland Athletics Player Prop Facts

  • Brent Rooker has hit a home run in six of his last 13 appearances.
  • Seth Brown has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Athletics' last four road games against AL opponents.
  • Ryan Noda has scored at least one run in five of the Athletics' last six games as road underdogs.
  • Ryan Noda has recorded at least one total base in each of the Athletics' last nine road games against AL opponents.
  • Ryan Noda has recorded at least one hit in each of the Athletics' last nine road games against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Minnesota Twins rank 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (642).
  • The Minnesota Twins rank T4th in the league for home runs this season (226).
  • The Oakland Athletics rank 30th in the league for RBI's this season (551).
  • The Oakland Athletics rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.224).

Pick

The Twins come into this game looking for the series sweep and they are playing great baseball down the stretch. Oakland has really struggled all season long and they are only 22-55 on the road. The Twins are starting Sonny Gray, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts, but the Twins are 2-3 in those five games. The Athletics are starting Luis Medina, who has allowed 4 earned runs or more in two of his last three outings. Gray has been very good for the Twins this season, but he hasn’t had a ton of run support, so I like the under in this game. 

David’s Pick Under 8.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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