Reds vs Guardians Prediction - MLB Picks 9/27/23

Cleveland Guardians (74-83) vs Cincinnati Reds (80-77)

Game Info: Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 6:10 pm (Progressive Field)

Shane Bieber (5-6) (3.91) vs Andrew Abbott (8-5) (3.70)

Betting Odds: Cleveland Guardians -131 / Cincinnati Reds +117 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians clash Wednesday in game 2 of an MLB series at Progressive Field. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Reds look for a win after splitting their last 10 games. The Reds are 1.5 games back in the NL wild card race. The Reds pitching staff is 25th in ERA (4.79), 24th in WHIP (1.41) and 27th in quality starts (43). The Reds' offense is 11th in runs per game (4.76), 17th in batting average (.247) and 15th in homers (189). Spencer Steer leads the Reds with 153 hits and 84 RBI, while TJ Friedl and Tyler Stephenson have combined for 244 hits and 117 RBI. Andrew Abbott gets the ball, and he is 8-5 with a 3.70 ERA and 119 strikeouts this season. This will be Abbott’s second career game against the Guardians.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

The Reds have won nine of their last 10 games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a win.
The Reds have covered the run line each of their last nine Wednesday night games against teams that held a losing record.
The Reds have led after 7 innings in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against opponents that held a losing record.
The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last four games against American League opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Guardians look to snap a 3-game losing streak. The Guardians are 1 of 8 AL teams bounced from the playoff race. The Guardians pitching staff is 8th in ERA (3.95), 18th in WHIP (1.30) and 12th in quality starts (56). The Guardians' offense is 27th in runs per game (4.11), 14th in batting average (.249) and 30th in homers (121). Steven Kwan leads the Guardians with 168 hits and 54 RBI, while Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez have combined for 306 hits ad 142 RBI. Shane Bieber gets the ball, and he is 5-6 with a 3.91 ERA and 100 strikeouts this season. Bieber is 3-0 with a 3.51 ERA and 39 strikeouts in his career against the Reds.

Cleveland Guardians Team Facts

The underdogs have won seven of the last eight games between the Reds and Guardians.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Guardians' last 16 games.
The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Guardians' last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.

Matchup/League Facts

The Cleveland Guardians rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (121).
The Cleveland Guardians rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1111).
The Cincinnati Reds rank 1st in the league for steals this season (185).
The Cincinnati Reds rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (35).

Randy’s Pick

The Guardians are getting the benefit of the doubt, I guess because they're at home and Shane Bieber is a quality pitcher with a 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. I get it. However, the Reds are the team that has something to play for, and there's value to getting plus money with the team that's motivated. Also, Andrew Abbott has been far from a pushover, with a 3.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. I have a hard time turning down the plus money with the Reds in this spot.