Marlins vs Mets Prediction - MLB Picks 9/27/23

New York Mets (71-85) vs Miami Marlins (81-75)

Game Info: Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)

Joey Lucchesi/Kodai Senga vs Johnny Cueto/Braxton Garrett

Betting Odds: New York Mets / Miami Marlins --- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Marlins will play the New York Mets in a doubleheader on Wednesday at Citi Field in New York. The Mets come into this game after being swept by the Phillies over the weekend, while Miami won their series over the Brewers. 

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 81-75 this season and they have won six of their last nine games. Miami is coming off of a series win against Milwaukee, where they won two out of three games. The Marlins are currently a half game behind the Cubs for the last NL Wild Card spot. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.24 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .246 opponent batting average this season. The Marlins offense has scored 649 runs with a .259 batting average and a .316 on base percentage. Jorge Soler is batting .249 with 36 home runs and 73 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami in Game 1 is Johnny Cueto, who is 1-4 with a 6.19 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 48 innings pitched. The projected starting pitcher for Game 2 is Braxton Garrett, who is 9-6 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 155.2 innings pitched this season.

Mets Preview

The New York Mets are 71-85 this season and they have lost five of their last six games. New York is coming off of a series loss to the Phillies, where they lost all four games on the road. The Mets did win two out of three against the Marlins in the series prior to Philadelphia. The New York pitching staff has a 4.33 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a .248 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 687 runs with a .239 batting average and a .317 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso is batting .217 with 45 home runs and 115 RBI’s for the Mets. The projected starting pitcher for Game 1 is Joey Lucchesi, who is 3-0 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 40.2 innings. The projected starting pitcher for New York in Game 2 is Kodai Senga, who is 12-7 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 161.1 innings pitched this year. 

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The Mets have won each of their last seven home games against the Marlins following a loss.
  • The Mets have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last five Wednesday day games against NL East opponents.
  • The Mets have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have lost each of their last eight day games at Citi Field following a win.
  • The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games.
  • The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last five day games.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last eight Wednesday games against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The New York Mets rank 25th in the league for batting average this season (.239).
  • The New York Mets rank 24th in the league for walks allowed this season (574).
  • The Miami Marlins rank T26th in the league for runs scored this season (649).
  • The Miami Marlins rank 26th in the league for RBI's this season (617).

Pick

The Marlins come into this double header with a chance to get two huge wins over the Mets, but New York has played their best baseball at home this season. Miami did get a nice series win against the Brewers over the weekend, but they are still on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. Make sure you check the probable pitchers as we get closer to Game 1, as neither team has specified who is pitching in which game. I am going to take the Mets in Game 1, but I like the Marlins to bounce back with a win in Game 2. 

David’s Pick Game 1: Mets ML Game 2: Marlins ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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