Rays vs Red Sox Prediction - MLB Picks 9/26/23

Boston Red Sox Team Facts

• The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against the Rays at Fenway Park following a home loss.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last three games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in each of their last three Tuesday games as home underdogs.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

• The Rays have won 16 of their last 17 games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Rays' last eight games.
• The Rays have trailed after 7 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Rays have won the first inning in each of their last four games against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last eight games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Rafael Devers has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox's last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Connor Wong has recorded an RBI in four of his last five home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded two or more total bases in 13 of his last 15 appearances at Fenway Park against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Rafael Devers has scored at least one run in five of the Red Sox's last six games against AL East opponents at Fenway Park.
• Justin Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox's last 10 Tuesday games as underdogs.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in four of his last 11 appearances with the Rays as favorites against AL East opponents.
• Harold Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances against the Red Sox.
• Harold Ramirez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four appearances with the Rays as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances with the Rays as favorites against the Red Sox.
• Zach Eflin has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Rays as favorites against AL opponents.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Yandy Diaz ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.328) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Boston Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.261).
• The Boston Red Sox rank 25th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.258).
• The Tampa Bay Rays rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.230).
• The Tampa Bay Rays rank 2nd in the league for hits allowed this season (1209).

Pick

The Rays come into the final week of the regular season trying to hunt down the Orioles in the AL East, but it is looking like they will have to settle for the first AL Wild Card spot. Boston has been really bad recently and they are now last in the AL East by a few games. The Red Sox are starting Tanner Houck, who has allowed 2, 0, 5, and 4 earned runs in his last four starts. The Rays are starting Zach Eflin, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. The Rays are the much better team and Eflin has been very solid recently, so I will take Tampa Bay to get the win.