Nationals vs Orioles Prediction - MLB Picks 9/26/23

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The Washington Nationals will play the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of their series on Tuesday night at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Baltimore currently leads the AL East by 2.5 games, while Washington is just trying to finish the season on a positive note. 

Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals are 69-88 this season and they have lost three of their last four games. Washington is coming off of a series loss to the Braves, where they lost three out of four games. The Nationals did win two out of three games against the White Sox prior to the Atlanta series. The Washington pitching staff has a 5.01 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a .271 opponent batting average this year. The Nationals offense has scored 676 runs with a .254 batting average and a .314 on base percentage. Lane Thomas is batting .270 with 27 home runs and 85 RBI’s for the Nationals. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Josiah Gray, who is 8-12 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 153 innings pitched this season.

Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 97-59 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Baltimore is coming off of a series split with the Guardians, where they won two games and lost two games. The Orioles are 45-30 at home this year and are looking to hold off the Rays in the AL East. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Orioles offense has scored 793 runs with a .257 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this season. Gunnar Henderson is batting .258 with 27 home runs and 81 RBI’s for the Orioles. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Kyle Bradish, who is 11-7 with a 3.01 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 158.2 innings pitched this year. 

Baltimore Orioles Team Facts

  • The Orioles have won each of their last 11 games as favorites against NL East opponents.
  • The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 Tuesday games as favorites against National League opponents.
  • The Orioles have led after 7 innings in each of their last 11 games as favorites against NL East opponents.
  • The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents.
  • The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents.

Washington Nationals Team Facts

  • The Nationals have won four of their last five games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
  • The Nationals have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 road games against American League opponents following a loss.
  • The Nationals have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four road night games.
  • The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Nationals' last three night games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

  • Anthony Santander has hit at least one home run in two of his last three home appearances against the Nationals.
  • Adley Rutschman has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Orioles' last four games against NL East opponents.
  • Anthony Santander has scored at least one run in five of his last six home appearances against the Nationals.
  • Kyle Bradish has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances.
  • Adley Rutschman has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Orioles' last four games as favorites.
  • Adley Rutschman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

  • Luis Garcia has hit a home run in each of the Nationals' last two games as road underdogs.
  • Keibert Ruiz has recorded two or more RBIs in four of his last five appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
  • Luis Garcia has scored at least one run in eight of the Nationals' last nine games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Luis Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals' last six games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Luis Garcia has recorded at least one total base in each of the Nationals' last six games against opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Baltimore Orioles rank 6th in the league for RBI's this season (767).
  • The Baltimore Orioles rank T7th in the league for triples this season (28).
  • The Washington Nationals rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (1111).
  • The Washington Nationals rank 28th in the league for strikeouts this season (1180).

Pick

Baltimore comes into this matchup as a huge favorite, but the Nationals have actually played better on the road than at home. The Orioles are the better team and are trying to lock up the AL East, but can Washington steal one? The Nationals are starting Josiah Gray, who has allowed 1, 2, 3, and 4 earned runs in his last four starts. Baltimore is starting Kyle Bradish, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. I am going to take the Orioles -1.5 in this matchup. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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