Astros vs Mariners Prediction - MLB Picks 9/25/23

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The Houston Astros will play the Seattle Mariners in Game 1 of their series on Monday night at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. Houston is coming off of a very rough series against the Royals, while Seattle also had issues over the weekend against Texas. 

Astros Preview

The Houston Astros are 85-71 this season and they have lost five of their last six games. Houston is coming off of a series loss to the Royals, where they lost all three games at home. The Astros have really struggled over the last two weeks, but they are currently ahead of Seattle by a half game for the last AL Wild Card spot. The Houston pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average this season. The Astros offense has scored 801 runs with a .258 batting average and a .332 on base percentage. Kyle Tucker is batting .281 with 28 home runs and 109 RBI’s for the Astros. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Justin Verlander, who is 11-8 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 149.1 innings pitched this year. 

Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners are 84-71 this season and they have lost three games in a row. Seattle is coming off of a series loss to the Rangers, where they lost all three games on the road. The Mariners are currently outside of the AL playoff picture, as they are a half game out of the last Wild Card spot and three games behind the Rangers in the AL West. The Seattle pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Mariners offense has scored 735 runs with a .244 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this year. Julio Rodriguez is batting .284 with 31 home runs and 100 RBI’s for the Mariners. The projected starting pitcher for Seattle is Luis Castillo, who is 14-7 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 188.1 innings pitched this season. 

Seattle Mariners Team Facts

  • The Mariners have lost each of their last six games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The road team has covered the run line in each of the last seven games between the Astros and Mariners.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last four games between the Astros and Mariners at T-Mobile Park.
  • The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Houston Astros Team Facts

  • The Astros have won each of their last 10 games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
  • The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as road underdogs following a loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last 11 games as underdogs against American League opponents.
  • The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games against American League opponents.
  • The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games against American League opponents.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

  • Julio Rodriguez has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances with the Mariners as home favorites against AL opponents.
  • Julio Rodriguez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six appearances against AL opponents at T-Mobile Park.
  • Julio Rodriguez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last eight appearances against AL opponents at T-Mobile Park.
  • Julio Rodriguez has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances against AL opponents at T-Mobile Park.
  • Luis Castillo has recorded six or more strikeouts in 25 of his last 27 home appearances.
  • Ty France has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners' last 11 home games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • Luis Castillo ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (3.06) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in four of the Astros' last five games as road underdogs against AL opponents.
  • Jose Abreu has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last nine road appearances.
  • Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in each of the Astros' last seven road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Justin Verlander has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances at T-Mobile Park.
  • Chas McCormick has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six road appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros' last nine road games against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Seattle Mariners rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (396).
  • The Seattle Mariners rank 3rd in the league for ERA this season (3.76).
  • The Houston Astros rank 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.332).
  • The Houston Astros are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.

Pick

This is a huge series for both teams, as they battle for the last AL Wild Card spot in the last week of the season. Both teams were swept over the weekend and now the Texas Rangers are in the drivers seat in the AL West. Seattle is starting Luis Castillo, who has allowed four earned runs in his last three starts (19 IP). Houston is starting Justin Verlander, who has allowed 3, 5, 1, and 6 earned runs in his last four starts. Castillo has been great for the Mariners this season, while Verlander has been a little inconsistent recently. Give me the Mariners here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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