Mets vs Phillies Prediction - MLB Picks 9/24/23

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The New York Mets will play the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies have won the first three games in this series by scores of 5-4, 5-4, and 7-5. 

Mets Preview

The New York Mets are 71-84 this season and they have lost four of their last five games. New York came into this series after winning two out of three games against the Marlins on the road. The Mets are only 32-48 on the road this year. The New York pitching staff has a 4.32 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a .248 opponent batting average this season. The Mets offense has scored 685 runs with a .240 batting average and a .318 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .218 with 45 home runs and 115 RBI’s for the Mets. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Jose Butto, who is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 32 innings pitched this year. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 86-69 this season and they have won four games in a row. Prior to this series, Philadelphia won two out of three games on the road against the Braves. The Phillies have scored 23 runs in their last four games. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 763 runs with a .257 batting average and a .329 on base percentage this year. Kyle Schwarber is batting .198 with 45 home runs and 100 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 2-5 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 91.1 innings pitched this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have won each of their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Mets following a home win.
  • The Phillies have led after 7 innings in each of their last 11 games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last seven night games against National League opponents.

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The Mets have lost each of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last eight Sunday games at Citizens Bank Park.
  • The Mets have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four night games at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Alec Bohm has hit a home run in three of the Phillies' last four games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Alec Bohm has recorded an RBI in each of the Phillies' last five games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Nick Castellanos has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Phillies' last six home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies' last eight home games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last 12 games as home favorites against NL opponents.
  • Bryce Harper ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.398) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Brett Baty has hit a home run in two of the Mets' last three night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Mets' last seven games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Pete Alonso has scored a run in each of the Mets' last six Sunday games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Brett Baty has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets' last 12 games as road underdogs against the Phillies.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 5th in the league for hits this season (1366).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 5th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.440).
  • The New York Mets rank 25th in the league for walks allowed this season (571).
  • The New York Mets rank 24th in the league for batting average this season (.240).

Pick

The Phillies come into this game looking for the four game sweep and they are 46-31 at home this season. The Mets are currently fourth in the NL East and they are only 32-48 away from Citi Field. New York is starting Jose Butto, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The Phillies are starting Cristopher Sanchez, who has allowed seven earned runs in his last two starts (11.1 IP). Sanchez has struggled a little bit in his last two starts, but they both came against the Braves. I really like how Butto has looked for the Mets and I am going to take them to get the win. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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