Blue Jays vs Rays Prediction - MLB Picks 9/24/23

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The Toronto Blue Jays will play the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Toronto won the first game in this series by a score of 6-2, but Tampa Bay won Game 2 by a score of 7-6 on Saturday. 

Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 86-69 this season and they have won six of their last eight games. Toronto came into this series after winning two out of three games against the Yankees in New York. The Blue Jays have scored 6+ runs in four of their last five games. The Toronto pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average this year. The Blue Jays offense has scored 707 runs with a .256 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. Bo Bichette is batting .303 with 19 home runs and 70 RBI’s for the Blue Jays. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Yusei Kikuchi, who is 10-6 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 158.2 innings pitched this season.

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 95-61 this season and they have lost four of their last seven games. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay won two out of three games at home against the Angels. The Rays have allowed 5+ runs in five of their last seven games. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a .229 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 818 runs with a .257 batting average and a .330 on base percentage this season. Randy Arozarena is batting .255 with 23 home runs and 83 RBI’s for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Taj Bradley, who is 5-7 with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 95.2 innings pitched this year.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

  • The Rays have lost each of their last three games as favorites against American League opponents following a win.
  • The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games.
  • The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last five day games.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last eight games at Tropicana Field.
  • The Rays have trailed after 7 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against American League opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays Team Facts

  • The Blue Jays have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a loss.
  • The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
  • The Blue Jays have led after 7 innings in seven of their last 10 games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
  • The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Tropicana Field.
  • The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games at Tropicana Field.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

  • Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of his last six home appearances against AL East opponents.
  • Harold Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six home appearances against AL East opponents.
  • Harold Ramirez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five appearances with the Rays as favorites against AL East opponents.
  • Yandy Diaz has scored a run in five of his last six appearances against AL East opponents at Tropicana Field.
  • Josh Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his six previous appearances with the Rays as favorites against the Blue Jays.
  • Yandy Diaz ranks 5th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.407) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

  • George Springer has hit at least one home run in three of the Blue Jays' last eight games as underdogs against the Rays.
  • George Springer has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Blue Jays' last five road games against the Rays.
  • Bo Bichette has scored at least one run in each of his last six road appearances.
  • George Springer has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Blue Jays' last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Yusei Kikuchi has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances with the Blue Jays as road underdogs.
  • George Springer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays' last six games against AL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Tampa Bay Rays are one of only 2 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
  • The Tampa Bay Rays rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.229).
  • The Toronto Blue Jays are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
  • The Toronto Blue Jays are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Pick

Toronto comes into this game in the second AL Wild Card spot, but they are only up one game on the Astros and 1.5 games on the Mariners. Tampa Bay is 1.5 games behind the Orioles, but is locked into the first AL Wild Card spot if they can’t catch them. The Rays are starting Taj Bradley, who has allowed 1, 4, and 4 earned runs in his last three starts. The Blue Jays are starting Yusei Kikuchi, who has allowed 1, 6, and 1 earned run in his last three outings. I don’t love either starting pitcher in this matchup, so I am taking the over here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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