Pirates vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 9/22/23

Cincinnati Reds (79-75) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (72-81)

Game Info: Friday, September 22, 2023 at 6:40 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Andrew Abbott (8-5) (3.68) vs Luis Ortiz (4-5) (4.85)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds / Pittsburgh Pirates --- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Pittsburgh Pirates will play the Cincinnati Reds in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss to the Twins, while Pittsburgh had a nice series win against the Cubs. 

Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 72-81 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Pittsburgh is coming off of a series win against the Cubs, where they won two out of three games. The Pirates scored 21 runs in the last two games against Chicago. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.58 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average this season. The Pirates offense has scored 650 runs with a .238 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .269 with 22 home runs and 78 RBI’s for the Pirates. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Luis Ortiz, who is 4-5 with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP over 78 innings pitched this year. 

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 79-75 this season and they have lost three of their last four games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss to Minnesota at home, where they lost two out of three games. The Reds blew a huge opportunity to get the series win on Wednesday, when they blew a 3-1 lead in the eighth inning. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.73 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 720 runs with a .247 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this year. Spencer Steer is batting .269 with 22 home runs and 82 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 8-5 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 102.2 innings pitched this season.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have won 17 of their last 21 night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Reds have covered the run line in five of their last six night games against NL Central opponents.
  • The Reds have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five night games against NL Central opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last four games at Great American Ball Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

  • The Pirates have lost nine of their last 10 games at Great American Ball Park against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents following a road win.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (211).
  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 27th in the league for walks allowed this season (579).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 27th in the league for batting average this season (.238).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates rank T5th in the league for triples this season (29).

Pick

The Reds come into this series currently outside of the last NL Wild Card spot and they are battling with the Marlins, Cubs, and Giants for the last spot. Pittsburgh just delivered a tough series loss to the Cubs and will look to continue to play spoiler here. The Pirates are starting Luis Ortiz, who has allowed 4, 1, and 2 earned runs in his last three starts. Cincinnati is starting Andrew Abbott, who has allowed 2, 6, and 1 earned run in his last three starts. The Pirates have been pretty competitive over the last month or two, but I think Abbott is going to have a very good start for Cincinnati. Take the Reds here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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