Blue Jays vs Rays Prediction - MLB Picks 9/22/23

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The Toronto Blue Jays will play the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Tampa Bay continues to try and chase down the Orioles in the AL East, while Toronto is trying to cling onto an AL Wild Card spot. 

Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 85-68 this season and they have won five of their last six games. Toronto is coming off of a series win against the Yankees, where they won two out of three games. Prior to their loss on Thursday, Toronto had allowed seven runs in the previous five games. The Toronto pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average this season. The Blue Jays offense has scored 695 runs with a .256 batting average and a .328 on base percentage. George Springer is batting .259 with 20 home runs and 65 RBI’s for the Blue Jays. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Chris Bassitt, who is 14-8 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 185.2 innings pitched this year.

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 94-60 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series win against the Angels, where they won two out of three games. The Rays have allowed 5+ runs in three of their last five games. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a .229 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 809 runs with a .257 batting average and a .330 on base percentage this year. Isaac Paredes is batting .252 with 29 home runs and 92 RBI’s for the Rays. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Tyler Glasnow, who is 9-6 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 109.2 innings pitched this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

  • The Rays have won five of their last six home games.
  • The Rays have covered the run line each of their last six games at Tropicana Field against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Rays have trailed after 7 innings in three of their last four games as favorites.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last six games at Tropicana Field.

Toronto Blue Jays Team Facts

  • The Blue Jays have won six of their last seven games as road underdogs.
  • The Blue Jays have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
  • The Blue Jays have led after 7 innings in each of their last seven Friday night games as underdogs.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Blue Jays' last three games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
  • The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in four of their last six games as road underdogs against American League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Tampa Bay Rays are one of only 2 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
  • The Tampa Bay Rays are one of only 2 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
  • The Toronto Blue Jays are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
  • The Toronto Blue Jays are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Pick

Tampa Bay comes into this series trailing the Orioles by 1.5 games in the AL East, but they do have an 8.5 game lead for the first Wild Card spot. Toronto is currently in the second Wild Card spot in the AL, but is only ahead by a half game. Toronto is starting Chris Bassitt, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Tampa Bay is starting Tyler Glasnow, who has allowed 10 earned runs in his last two starts (10 IP). Take the Blue Jays to get a huge win here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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