Twins vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 9/20/23

Cincinnati Reds (79-74) vs Minnesota Twins (80-72)

Game Info: Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 12:35 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Hunter Greene (4-6) (4.45) vs Bailey Ober (7-6) (3.67)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds -112 / Minnesota Twins -108 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Minnesota Twins will play the Cincinnati Reds in Game 3 of their series on Wednesday afternoon at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cincinnati won the first game in this series by a score of 7-3 on Monday, but the Twins answered with a 7-0 win on Tuesday night. 

Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 80-72 this season and they have alternated wins and losses over their last five games. Minnesota has just about clinched the AL Central, as they are up 8 games over the Guardians. The Twins have scored 6+ runs in four of their last six games. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average this season. The Twins offense has scored 715 runs with a .242 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Bailey Ober, who is 7-6 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 127.2 innings pitched this year.

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 79-74 this season and they have lost two of their last three games. Cincinnati has played solid baseball over the past ten days, going 6-3. The Reds are right in the middle of the NL Wild Card race, but are currently one game out of the last spot. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.73 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 717 runs with a .247 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this year. Spencer Steer is batting .269 with 22 home runs and 82 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Hunter Greene, who is 4-6 with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 97 innings pitched this season.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have won seven of their last eight day games against AL Central opponents following a loss.
  • The Reds have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against AL Central opponents following a home loss.
  • The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last three home day games.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last three home games.

Minnesota Twins Team Facts

  • The Twins have lost each of their last eight Wednesday day road games against National League opponents.
  • The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last five day games against NL Central opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last three road games.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (210).
  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1415).
  • The Minnesota Twins rank T4th in the league for home runs this season (217).
  • The Minnesota Twins rank 4th in the league for walks allowed this season (418).

Pick

Minnesota was able to bounce back after their game one loss with a blowout win in Game 2, but can Cincinnati get a much needed win to close out the series here? The Reds have to treat each game like a must win, as they are fighting with five teams for the last two Wild Card spots. Cincinnati is starting Hunter Greene, who has allowed three earned runs in his last 17 innings of work. The Twins are starting Bailey Ober, who has allowed two earned runs in three of his last four starts, but has only made one start since August 27th. I really like how Greene has looked in his last three outings and I like the Reds to get the win. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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