Phillies vs Braves Prediction - MLB Picks 9/20/23

Atlanta Braves (97-54) vs Philadelphia Phillies (82-69)

Game Info: Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 12:20 pm (Truist Park)

Bryce Elder (12-4) (3.50) vs Aaron Nola (12-9) (4.62)

Betting Odds: Atlanta Braves -142 / Philadelphia Phillies +120 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Philadelphia Phillies will play the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of their series on Wednesday afternoon at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Philadelphia won the first game in this series by a score of 7-1 on Monday night, but Atlanta won Game 2 by a score of 9-3 on Tuesday. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 82-69 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Philadelphia came into this series after winning two out of three games against the Cardinals. The Phillies are currently sitting in the first NL Wild Card spot, but they have lost eight of the 12 matchups with Atlanta so far this season. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average this season. The Phillies offense has scored 740 runs with a .258 batting average and a .328 on base percentage. Trea Turner is batting .269 with 26 home runs and 75 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 12-9 with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 181 innings pitched this year. 

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 97-54 this season and they have lost four of their last five games. Atlanta had really struggled coming into the game on Tuesday and was out scored 43-14 in those four losses. The Braves have already locked up the NL East, but are still pushing for the best record in the MLB. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 4.07 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 875 runs with a .275 batting average and a .343 on base percentage this year. Matt Olson is batting .279 with 52 home runs and 130 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Bryce Elder, who is 12-4 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 167.1 innings pitched this season.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have lost each of their last five Wednesday day games as favorites against NL East opponents.
  • The Braves have covered the run line 14 of their last 16 games at Truist Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Braves have won the first inning in each of their last three games against the Phillies.
  • The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last three games between the Phillies and Braves.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have won seven of their last eight road games following a road loss.
  • The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last four day games following a road loss.
  • The Phillies have lost the first inning in each of their last three games at Truist Park.
  • The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last four Wednesday games as road underdogs.
  • The Phillies have led after 7 innings in each of their last four Wednesday games as road underdogs.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks 1st in the league in Steals (67) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Bryce Harper ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.394) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (291).
  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for RBI's this season (847).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 5th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.440).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 6th in the league for hits this season (1334).

Pick

Atlanta was able to snap their losing streak and get back on the right track on Tuesday, but who will get the series win in this matchup? The Phillies have had a very solid season, but they are only one game above .500 on the road this year. Atlanta is starting Bryce Elder, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last six starts. Philadelphia is starting Aaron Nola, who has allowed 13 earned runs in his last three starts (13.2 IP). Take the Braves to get another win at home. 

David’s Pick Braves ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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