Mets vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 9/20/23

Miami Marlins (79-73) vs New York Mets (70-81)

Game Info: Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 6:40 pm (loanDepot park)

Eury Perez (5-5) (3.06) vs Kodai Senga (11-7) (2.95)

Betting Odds: Miami Marlins -125 / New York Mets +115 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New York Mets will play the Miami Marlins in Game 3 of their series on Wednesday night at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. New York won the first game in this series by a score of 2-1, but Miami answered with a 4-3 win on Tuesday night. 

Mets Preview

The New York Mets are 70-81 this year and they have lost three of their last five games. New York came into this series after losing two of three to the Reds, but they did win three out of four against Arizona prior to that. The Mets have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five games. The New York pitching staff has a 4.32 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average this season. The Mets offense has scored 664 runs with a .239 batting average and a .318 on base percentage. Francisco Lindor is batting .250 with 26 home runs and 87 RBI’s for the Mets. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Kodai Senga, who is 11-7 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 155.1 innings pitched this year. 

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 79-73 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Miami is in the middle of the NL Wild Card race and they are currently just outside of the last spot. The Marlins swept the Braves in their last series and scored 36 runs in the three game series. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.17 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 634 runs with a .258 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this year. Jorge Soler is batting .242 with 36 home runs and 73 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Eury Perez, who is 5-5 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 88.1 innings pitched this season.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have lost each of their last four games as home favorites following a home win.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 games at LoanDepot Park against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last four night games between the Mets and Marlins.

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The Mets have won 12 of their last 13 games against the Marlins following a loss.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Wednesday night road games.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last three night games at LoanDepot Park.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jorge Soler ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (36) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Kodai Senga ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.95) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Miami Marlins rank 26th in the league for RBI's this season (603).
  • The Miami Marlins rank 5th in the league for batting average this season (.258).
  • The New York Mets rank 25th in the league for hits this season (1198).
  • The New York Mets rank 25th in the league for batting average this season (.239).


The Marlins come into this game desperately needing a win and they will play a New York team that is only 31-45 on the road this season. The Marlins are 44-33 at home and they just got Soler back in their lineup. Miami is starting Eury Perez, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. New York is starting Kodai Senga, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts. Senga has been dominant in recent outings, so I am going to take the Mets here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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