Twins vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 9/19/23

Cincinnati Reds (79-73) vs Minnesota Twins (79-72)

Game Info: Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 6:40 pm (Great American Ball Park)

() () vs Kenta Maeda (5-7) (4.50)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds +142 / Minnesota Twins -155 --- Over/Under: 10 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Minnesota Twins and Cincinnati Reds clash Tuesday in game 2 of an MLB series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Twins look for a win after splitting their last 10 games. The Twins have a 7 game lead in the AL Central. The Twins pitching staff is 7th in ERA (3.92), 4th in WHIP (1.20) and 1st in quality starts (72). The Twins offense is 12th in runs per game (4.69), 22nd in batting average (.241) and 5th in homers (215). Carlos Correa leads the Twins with 118 hits and 65 RBI, while Max Kepler and Donovan Solano have combined for 206 hits and 98 RBI. Kenta Maeda gets the ball, and he is 5-7 with a 4.50 ERA and 104 strikeouts this season. Maeda is 2-1 with a 4.62 ERA and 30 strikeouts in his career against the Reds.

Minnesota Twins Team Facts

The Twins have won each of their last 10 night games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
The Twins have covered the run line in 14 of their last 15 night games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
The Twins have trailed after 7 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Great American Ball Park.
The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Reds look for a win after winning 6 of their last 8 games. The Reds are tied with the Cubs for the last NL wild card spot The Reds pitching staff is 24th in ERA (4.71), 23rd in WHIP (1.40) and 26th in quality starts (42). The Reds' offense is 11th in runs per game (4.72), 17th in batting average (.248) and 15th in homers (177). Spencer Steer leads the Reds with 146 hits and 82 RBI, while TJ Friedl and Tyler Stephenson have combined for 233 hits and 106 RBI. Fernando Cruz gets the ball, and he is 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA and 88 strikeouts this season. This will be Cruz’s first career game against the Twins.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

The Reds have lost each of their last eight home games against AL Central opponents following a win.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 home games against AL Central opponents following a win.
The Reds have led after 3 innings in four of their last six games as home underdogs against AL Central opponents.
The Reds have led after 7 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs.
The Reds have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

The Cincinnati Reds rank 1st in the league for steals this season (173).
The Cincinnati Reds rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (33).
The Minnesota Twins rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1551).
The Minnesota Twins rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1419).

Randy’s Pick

You can make a case for either side here, as both teams are above average and fighting for playoff positioning. I'm looking at the over instead. Kenta Maeda has been hittable with his 4.50 ERA and 16 homers allowed in 96 innings, while Fernando Cruz has a 4.05 ERA and 26 walks in 60 innings. Both clubs are in the top-15 in runs scored this season, so we have two hittable pitchers and two capable offenses. Big total, but I expect some fireworks. Give me the over in this spot.