Phillies vs Braves Prediction - MLB Picks 9/19/23

Atlanta Braves (96-54) vs Philadelphia Phillies (82-68)

Game Info: Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 7:20 pm (Truist Park)

Spencer Strider (17-5) (3.73) vs Cristopher Sanchez (2-4) (3.40)

Betting Odds: Atlanta Braves -225 / Philadelphia Phillies +185 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: MLB.tv Stream the MLB Game of the Day all season on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

The Philadelphia Phillies will play the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of their series on Tuesday night at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Philadelphia won the first game in this series by a score of 7-1 on Monday night, but still trails the Braves by 14 games in the NL East. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 82-68 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Philadelphia came into this series after winning two out of three games against the Cardinals on the road. The Phillies have scored 5+ runs in four consecutive games. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average this year. The Phillies offense has scored 737 runs with a .258 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber is batting .197 with 45 home runs and 99 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 2-4 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 87.1 innings pitched this season.

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 96-54 this season and they have lost four games in a row. Prior to this series, Atlanta lost all three of their games against the Marlins. The Braves have allowed 43 runs in their last four games. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 866 runs with a .274 batting average and a .342 on base percentage this season. Ronald Acuna is batting .336 with 37 home runs and 98 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Spencer Strider, who is 17-5 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 169 innings pitched this year.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have won each of their last 11 Tuesday night home games against NL East opponents.
  • The Braves have covered the run line 13 of their last 15 home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Braves' last three games as home favorites.
  • The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as favorites.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have won four of their last five games as road underdogs.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against the Braves at Truist Park following a win.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last four night games against National League opponents.
  • The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Ozzie Albies has hit at least one home run in four of the Braves' last five games at Truist Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Braves' last seven home games against NL East opponents.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in each of his last nine appearances with the Braves as favorites against NL opponents.
  • Spencer Strider has recorded nine or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Matt Olson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last eight games at Truist Park.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks 1st in the league in Steals (66) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • J.T. Realmuto has hit a home run in each of the Phillies' last three road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Nick Castellanos has recorded an RBI in four of the Phillies' last five road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • J.T. Realmuto has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies' last five road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last seven night games.
  • Nick Castellanos has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances at Truist Park.
  • Bryce Harper ranks 8th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.395) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (289).
  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for RBI's this season (838).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 5th in the league for hits this season (1331).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 5th in the league for batting average this season (.259).

Pick

The Braves come into this game as a pretty heavy favorite, but they have played pretty poorly in their last four games. Philadelphia is fighting in the NL Wild Card race, but they have a four game lead and are in the first spot currently. The Phillies are starting Cristopher Sanchez, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Braves are going with Spencer Strider, who has allowed 11 earned runs in his last three starts (15.2 IP). I think we have some good value on the Phillies in this game, as the Braves continue to struggle to get outs. 

David’s Pick Phillies ML

Get Premium Picks Start Winning Now »
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
Previous Pick
Next Pick

Mitch's Take...

College Football Best Bets Today Picks & Predictions Week 5 Saturday 9/30/23 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.

Dismiss