Twins vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 9/18/23

Cincinnati Reds (78-73) vs Minnesota Twins (79-71)

Game Info: Monday, September 18, 2023 at 6:40 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Connor Phillips (0-0) (8.31) vs Joe Ryan (10-9) (4.20)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds / Minnesota Twins --- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Minnesota Twins will play the Cincinnati Reds in Game 1 of their series on Monday night at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Reds have won two series in a row, but they are still on the outside of the NL Wild Card race, while Minnesota has the AL Central pretty much locked up. 

Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 79-71 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Minnesota is coming off of a series win against the White Sox, where they won three out of four games. The Twins scored 30 runs in the four game series in Chicago and they are 36-39 on the road this year. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average this season. The Twins offense has scored 705 runs with a .242 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Carlos Correa is batting .230 with 18 home runs and 65 RBI’s for the Twins. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Joe Ryan, who is 10-9 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 145.2 innings pitched this year.

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 78-73 this season and they have won five of their last seven games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series win against the Mets, where they won two out of three games. The Reds have played well in their last two series, but they are in a very tight race in the NL Wild Card race with Chicago, Miami, and Arizona. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.72 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 710 runs with a .247 batting average and a .325 on base percentage this year. Spencer Steer is batting .265 with 22 home runs and 81 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Connor Phillips, who is 0-0 with an 8.31 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP over 8.2 innings pitched this season.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have won each of their last nine Monday games at Great American Ball Park.
  • The Reds have failed to cover the run line seven of their last eight games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games against the Twins.
  • The Reds have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last seven home night games.

Minnesota Twins Team Facts

  • The Twins have lost five of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a road win.
  • The Twins have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as favorites against National League opponents following a road win.
  • The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last five Monday road games.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last three night games against National League opponents.
  • The Twins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

  • TJ Friedl has hit a home run in three of the Reds' last six night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Reds' last four games against AL opponents.
  • Jonathan India has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances against AL opponents at Great American Ball Park.
  • Jonathan India has recorded two or more total bases in eight of his last 10 appearances against AL Central opponents at Great American Ball Park.
  • Jake Fraley has recorded a hit in nine of his last 10 home appearances against AL opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

  • Joe Ryan has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (206).
  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 27th in the league for walks allowed this season (567).
  • The Minnesota Twins are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
  • The Minnesota Twins rank 4th in the league for walks allowed this season (411).

Pick

The Reds come into this series in playoff mode, as they need to get as many wins as possible to stay in the NL Wild Card race. Minnesota is only a couple of games better than Cincinnati, but they have pretty much locked up the AL Central race. Cincinnati is starting Connor Phillips, who has allowed eight earned runs in his last 8.2 innings of work. Minnesota is starting Joe Ryan, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, but only three of those starts have gone more than five innings. Cincinnati needs this game more, but I like the pitching advantage that the Twins have. Give me the Twins here. 

David’s Pick Twins ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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