Mets vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 9/18/23

Miami Marlins (78-72) vs New York Mets (69-80)

Game Info: Monday, September 18, 2023 at 6:40 pm (loanDepot park)

Edward Cabrera (6-7) (4.52) vs Jose Butto (1-2) (3.46)

Betting Odds: Miami Marlins -162 / New York Mets +136 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New York Mets will play the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of their series at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. New York is coming off of a series loss to the Reds, while Miami swept the Braves at home. 

Mets Preview

The New York Mets are 69-80 this season and they have won four of their last six games. New York is coming off of a series loss to the Reds, where they lost two out of three games. The Mets have scored 7+ runs in four of their last six games. The New York pitching staff has a 4.35 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .248 opponent batting average this season. The Mets offense has scored 659 runs with a .239 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .222 with 45 home runs and 112 RBI’s for the Mets. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Jose Butto, who is 1-2 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over 26 innings pitched this year.

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 78-72 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Miami is coming off of a series win against Atlanta, where they won all three games. The Marlins scored 36 runs in the three game sweep of the Braves. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 629 runs with a .259 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this year. Luis Arraez is batting .353 with 10 home runs and 69 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Edward Cabrera, who is 6-7 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 85.2 innings pitched this season.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have lost each of their last four games as home favorites following a win.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight games at LoanDepot Park against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last five games as favorites against National League opponents.

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The Mets have won three of their last four games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
  • The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
  • The Mets have led after 5 innings in six of their last nine games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
  • The Mets have led after 7 innings in each of their last four Monday games as underdogs.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last three games against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jorge Soler has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances against NL East opponents.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins' last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Luis Arraez has scored at least one run in each of the Marlins' last six games as favorites against NL opponents.
  • Edward Cabrera has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
  • Josh Bell has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 16 appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
  • Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
  • Jorge Soler ranks T7th in the league in Home Runs (36) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Pete Alonso has hit at least one home run in each of the Mets' last three Monday games at LoanDepot Park.
  • Omar Narvaez has scored at least one run in each of his last four road appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Pete Alonso has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets' last three games against the Marlins.
  • Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets' last 13 road games against NL East opponents.
  • Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets' last 13 road games against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Miami Marlins rank T26th in the league for steals this season (77).
  • The Miami Marlins rank 6th in the league for hits this season (1322).
  • The New York Mets rank 26th in the league for walks allowed this season (555).
  • The New York Mets rank 25th in the league for batting average this season (.239).

Pick

The Marlins are coming off of a very impressive sweep of the Braves, where they were hitting the ball extremely well. Miami is right in the middle of the NL Wild Card race, along with the Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Reds. New York is out of postseason contention, but they have played decently well in recent games. The Mets are starting Jose Butto, who has allowed three earned runs in his last two starts (11.1 IP). The Marlins are starting Edward Cabrera, who has allowed two earned runs over eight innings since being recalled from the minors. Cabrera has had a lot of issues with walks this season, but the Marlins are hitting the ball very well right now. Take Miami here. 

David’s Pick Marlins ML

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