Rays vs Orioles Prediction - MLB Picks 9/17/23

Baltimore Orioles (92-56) vs Tampa Bay Rays (92-58)

Game Info: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 1:35 pm (Oriole Park at Camden Yards)

Dean Kremer (12-5) (4.25) vs Zack Littell (3-6) (4.25)

Betting Odds: Baltimore Orioles -125 / Tampa Bay Rays +105 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Tampa Bay Rays will play the Baltimore Orioles in Game 4 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Tampa Bay won the first two games in this series by scores of 4-3 and 7-1, but Baltimore answered with an 8-0 win on Saturday. 

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 92-58 this season and they have won seven of their last nine games. The Rays didn’t score on Saturday, but they had scored 5+ runs in six of the previous eight games. Tampa Bay trails Baltimore by one game in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a .229 opponent batting average this season. The Rays offense has scored 791 runs with a .258 batting average and a .330 on base percentage. Yandy Diaz is batting .322 with 20 home runs and 73 RBI’s for the Rays. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Zack Littell, who is 3-6 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 78.1 innings pitched this year. 

Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 92-56 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Prior to Saturday’s win, Baltimore had lost four straight games to Tampa Bay and St. Louis. The Orioles are 44-30 at home this season. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .246 opponent batting average. The Orioles offense has scored 753 runs with a .257 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this year. Gunnar Henderson is batting .260 with 27 home runs and 79 RBI’s for the Orioles. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Dean Kremer, who is 12-5 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 159 innings pitched this season. 

Baltimore Orioles Team Facts

  • The Orioles have lost each of their last seven games as favorites against AL East opponents following a home win.
  • The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against AL East opponents following a home win.
  • The Orioles have trailed after 7 innings in four of their last five games as home favorites.
  • The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last three games as favorites against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

  • The Rays have won four of their last five games as road underdogs.
  • The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight day games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following a road loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last five Sunday day games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
  • The Rays have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

  • Gunnar Henderson has hit a home run in two of the Orioles' last three home games against the Rays.
  • Adam Frazier has recorded an RBI in four of the Orioles' last five home games against AL opponents.
  • Aaron Hicks has scored at least one run in each of his last six Sunday appearances with his team as a favorite.
  • Dean Kremer has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last eight home appearances against AL opponents.
  • Gunnar Henderson has recorded three or more total bases in each of the Orioles' last four games as favorites.
  • Cedric Mullins has recorded a hit in each of the Orioles' last five home games against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

  • Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of the Rays' last five games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Rays' last six games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Yandy Diaz has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Rays' last nine Sunday day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Yandy Diaz has scored at least one run in each of the Rays' last eight Sunday day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays' last 10 road games against AL opponents.
  • Yandy Diaz ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.400) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Baltimore Orioles rank 6th in the league for RBI's this season (729).
  • The Baltimore Orioles rank 6th in the league for walks allowed this season (433).
  • The Tampa Bay Rays rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.229).
  • The Tampa Bay Rays rank 2nd in the league for hits allowed this season (1145).

Pick

Baltimore comes into this game with a one game lead over Tampa Bay in the AL East, which makes this is a huge game in the postseason race. Tampa Bay is 42-33 on the road this season, while Baltimore is 44-30 at home. The Rays have played better baseball recently and they are starting Zack Littell, who has allowed 3, 1, 4, 4, and 4 earned runs in his last five starts. Baltimore is starting Dean Kremer, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings, but did allow five earned runs in his last start. Kremer has been solid for the Orioles for most of this season and I am going to take Baltimore to get the home win here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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